Western Embassies, Neway Debebe and the Last Days of Election 2010 – Eskinder Nega (Addis Ababa)

May 21st, 2010 Print Print Email Email

The last two weeks of election 2010’s campaign season witnessed a flurry of activities by the EPRDF and the opposition. (more…)

The last two weeks of election 2010’s campaign season witnessed a flurry of activities by the EPRDF and the opposition. Absent a strong media through which they could get their message across, the opposition relied on millions of fliers and, to a lesser extent, on a string of last minute public meetings to connect with voters. No one knows how many fliers the EPRDF, whose financial resources dwarfs that of the opposition, has distributed. But a scan of the opposition show that almost all of them have strategized heavily on fliers, betting that rural folks will be able to take them discreetly in to their homes, providing them with an alternative to the domineering EPRDF; and more importantly, acquainting them with their election symbols—five fingers for Medrek, thumb for AEUP, flower for EDP, and bee for the EPRDF.

Of the sequence of public meetings over the past fifteen days, the most interesting ones, next to those in Tigray, up north, long a strong hold of the EPRDF, have been the ones staged in the South, home to more than 40 of Ethiopia’s 80 ethnic groups; and now where all parties adamantly insist that record numbers have come out to attend their meetings. But most pundits expect the main competition to be between the ruling party and Medrek, the largest opposition party, prominently represented in the region by its President, Professor Beyene Petros, who is a native of  Hadeya, one of the constituent zones that make up The South region. It is also where a heated contest between a high profile EPRDF official, Berhanu Adelo, who is an advisor to the PM, and Dr Asheber Welde Girogis, a former President of Ethiopia’s football association, is generating a series of sensational claims and counter-claims. The controversial dentist, who was educated in the former Soviet Union, and owns a chain of successful clinics in Addis Ababa, is running as an independent. (Pro-EPRDF but against Berhanu, he openly claims.) The rivalry between the two has its genesis in the Ethiopian Football Association, which was led by Asheber for some time before being ousted by a putsch led from behind the scene by Berhanu. This is visibly one of the hotspots of the election, no doubt a magnet for the far too scarce EU and AU observers; who have to carefully identify where they will be monitoring.

There are over 260, 000 election observers this year, but the foreign contingents, who are the only credible ones, constitute a tiny fraction. Their number has further been reduced by a surprise decision of the EPRDF last week to bar embassies and international organizations in Addis from observing the elections. And even worse, a draconian restriction against the free movement of diplomats has been imposed to enforce the ban; they now need special permits from the Foreign Ministry for travel outside of Addis. “We observed the 2005 and previous elections,” said a disappointed James Callahan, the US embassy spokesperson, to local media. So why not this year? “Maybe the EPRDF has something big to hide,” says a pundit. But the EPRDF, whose paranoia is bizarrely irrational, is insinuating that even foreign embassies (understood to be the Western ones) are flirting with street protests. “ They spare no effort to bow to foreign countries and(their)embassies(in Addis),” says a recent Walta editorial on its website about the opposition, “as if they had supreme power over Ethiopia’s politics. They have been attempting to make outsiders accomplices (in their effort) to change the government through street violence.”

But the EPRDF’s unfathomable belligerence is not only directed against its friends in the international community. It has upped its bewildering—and one sided—confrontation with Medrek, whose leaders are amongst the pioneers of non-violent political engagement in Ethiopia, by formally pressing charges against it with the electoral board. “We have submitted an array of complaints against Medrek and Dr Asheber, chiefly for obstructing the peaceful conduct of the electoral process,” said HaileMariam Desalegn this week. Medrek leaders’ angry response, while expected, was hardly necessary. “No one believes the EPRDF,” says a diplomat.

Believed or not, however, the EPRDF was not content to let the week pass with only one breathtaking episode to its credit. It had to also fantastically predicate a total sweep for itself in Addis. “We have conducted an internal poll,” said HaileMariam to local media,” the results show the EPRDF winning all seats in Addis Ababa. We have also identified problems areas, and they are: West Shoa, Dessie and Gonder citeies.”

West Shoa, whose main town is Ambo, is where Dr Merera Gudina, one of the leaders of Medrek, is running as an incumbent, and also where his party should be able to repeat its success in 2005. A large rally staged by the EPRDF was held in Ambo on Tuesday, but few are predicting that the popular Dr Merara will be defeated in his home turf. His margin of victory over the ruling party in 2005, 82% for him verses only 17% for the EPRDF, is generally considered to be too high to be reversed this year. But the EPRDF seems determined to reverse its huge loss in the area, and the number of foreign observers will not be enough to deter rigging. Many pundits expect the EPRDF to register major gains in the area, and then to precede from there to allege that the opposition opted to react violently to the outcome, giving it pretext to clampdown hard against opposition supporters.

Dessie, one of the two cities mentioned by HaileMariam, is famed for repeatedly rejecting the EPRDF; in 2005 giving it one of the smallest share of votes in the country, only 15 %. The EPRDF is hoping that a split opposition vote will give it a chance in Dessie( and throughout the Amhara region), but that presupposes about a third of the vote to the EPRDF, a threshold few expect it to attain short of rigging. The percentage of votes cast for it in Gonder, the other city referred to by HaileMriam, is larger than Dessie, averaging around the mid 20s, but again short of the magical mid 30s needed for the EPRDF to finish first-across-the-line and win fairly. “A ten percentage point shift in public opinion in favor of the EPRDF has not happened anywhere in the country. We don’t need a poll to know that,” says a pundit.

But even if both cities are declared for the EPRDF this year, it will hardly surprise residents, who are cynically resigned to the specter of rigging; as is the whole nation. And with no expectation in the horizon, there is no reason for the kind of street protests seen in 2005; the internal polls, surveys and assessments of the EPRDF notwithstanding. Thus the lingering suspicion that these three areas are where the EPRDF is intending to crackdown. “But the EPRDF may have its sights elsewhere, and is merely toying with the public; deflecting attention from its real intentions,” says a pundit who has closely watched the EPRDF over the past two decades. “They love to surprise.”

In the meantime, election season has officially drawn to a close on Thursday; after, according to official figures, 63 contesting political parties used over 680 hours of TV and radio air time; over 90 million election materials were distributed to 43, 000 polling stations; and only a parsimonious 189 million birr(about 15 million US dollars) from government and donor sources was allocated for the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia. Voting is to ensue early on Sunday, with millions of people lining up to vote that few expect will in the end be tallied transparently. Most will vote out of a sense of duty to the government, whose omnipresence in their lives is assured by the services and food aid it provides in rural areas. And as a farmer I met on an interstate bus a few weeks ago assured me, most voters are convinced that though they will be casting their votes in total privacy, the government, which uses food aid as a political weapon, according to HRW, will be able to find out who voted for whom if it wants to. Be prepared to receive news of EPRDF’s “win” by Wednesday.( Most EPRDF officials favor the declaration of the final results within 48 hours.)

And finally, Neway Debebe, a popular pop artist whose mid-life crisis is widely believed to have induced him to return to Ethiopia after years in exile opposing the EPRDF, lashed out against the opposition for using his music for political campaigns. Neway

“My music is intended for the public, not political parties. The people and the government might get the wrong impression,” said Neway, according to local media.

But the question is: would he be saying the same thing if he thought the opposition had any chance of winning?

A  Note to my Readers.

Sunday is Election Day, and I am intending to update you twice on that day. My first dispatch will be mid-day, Ethiopian time, and the second towards the end of the day when polls close. Hope you will find the time to read them.

  1. Anonymous
    | #1

    good job

  2. abdu
    | #2

    good job

  3. Tsehai
    | #3

    God bless Ethiopia!

  4. aha!
    | #4

    I hate to read an unbalanced report by a renowned reporter, when the reality on the ground show otherwise and arrangement of the parties in terms of political models are TPLF/eprdf, Tigrai-Harena/fdd/efdr/efdur, according to their emblem, which is =/similar to TPLF/eprdf with ethnic-agenda at the core of the political model of multilayer, hierarchical vertical structure, advocating revolutuionary democracy, and KAEUP, EDP and others with national agenda for unity, territorial integrity, sovereignity of Ethiopia and Ethiopians, in stark contrast with TPLF/eprdf regime, where Tigrai-Harena/fdd/efdr maintains/upholds ethnic agenda of TPLF/eprdf regime about partitioning the country by ethnic boundries, rather than original state boundries of multi ethnic entities, and adopting ethnic-federalism instead of State Fedralism, and/or secessionism upto independence.

    With this as the background in terms of the arrangement of the major parties, how come a reporter gives us a competion between Medrek, particularly this time with respect to Southern “Killil”, knowing that a campaign for election between Medrek is for consumption of those seeking a better of two similar alternatives with the same agenda but different in style as to how to continue with TPLF dominance or the status quo. A vote for a candidate in TPLF/eprdf camp or a candidate in the camp of Medrek serves the same ethnic agenda by taking away votes from those parties with national agenda for unity, territorial integrity, sovergnity, of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. These parties are the products of the socialistic revolution,led by TPLF and EPLF, I presume, who took the of oppression and colonization of the nationalities as their major focus; instead of class struggle for land reform and workers rights, etc. At least we deserve a balanced report of all the three major factions that are moblizing the forces at behest of the Code of Conduct Agreement signed by KAEUP, EDP and others along with the neogtiations for implementations of 8-point preconditions for fair and free election, of which Medrek has no part to play, other than to participate in the campaign for 2010 elections based on those agreements, which has it its own shortcomings.

  5. Haileselssie Beyene
    | #5

    Thank you Esknider Nega, I rely admire you. You gave us always a valuable current situation of our country.
    Thxs

  6. Haileselssie Beyene
    | #6

    አቶ እስክንድር ነጋ ሁሌ በሚያቀርባቸው መጣጥፎች በጣም እወነታን የተላበሱ በመሆናቸው በእውነቱ ከልብ አደንቀዋሎሁ፡፡ በተለይም በአሁኑ ወቅት ስላለው የአገራችን ተጨባጭ ሁኔታ በግልፅ ሰለሚያቀርብልን ከልብ በመነጨ ምስግናዮን ይድረስህ እላለሁኝ፡፡ ይበልጥም ጠንክረህ ቀጥልበት ለማለት እፈልጋሎሁ፡፡ እግዝኣብሔር እንዲጠብቅህም እፀልያሎሁ፡፡
    ሃይለስላሴ በየነ
    አድናቂህ ነኝ

  7. Gemetchissa
    | #7

    Fascist Italy build roads in Ethiopia too. Should we have left them alone? You can build a road from here to eternity and see if I care. I want my freedom.

    Anyway the roads are built with money borrowed from world bank for which Ethiopia will be hooked for years to come. So why is TPLF taking the credit. If anything we should be giving credit to the Ethiopian ppl who paid for these roads despite all the looting going on by TPLF operatives.

  8. Senay
    | #8

    Who are these “pundits” cited in every paragraph? they seem dream characters of some sort…

  9. atuba dolla
    | #9

    It had been good to not rush for a conclusion when the rumor buzzed around or hovoered over the head of Ethiopians that Newaye Debebe run into a terrible mid-life crisis,coupled with sliding into a camp of Zinawi chiefly because Cash/Newaye offered to him for doing a covert campain for EPRDF.Formerly,these were the rumors which now are vividly ture.So,let Neway cure his mid-life crisis with the cash he is offered;if the ailments go away and help him to mend the broken life.

  10. Drama
    | #10

    What is wrong with Newaye? Isn’t politics about the people? Some Ethiopians are stupid. They think politics is guns and hierarchy? That is Militarism. EPRDf is all about guns no rules. They don’t know politics. People like Neway need to know the difference b/n authoritarian politics vs democratic politics. Oppositions are trying to bring a democratic government. Some parties like AEUP promote politics so our brothers and sisters have money, food, home, education, etc (This is politics, Neway). If EPRDF uses his songs, then it is not a politician that used it. It is a Mafia. Stop having the view of EPRDF, which thinks politics is guns. That is a backward view. Sad that Neway was here in the USA for a long time and still doesn’t know what politics is. Government is by the people for the people,where there is or will be democracy. So don’t pice your self off Mr. Neway.

  11. justice for all
    | #11

    Come on, Newaye Debebe , have a back bone and stand on the side of the oppositions who are trying to bring change and save the tormented Ethiopian people. Aren’t you fed up with Meles abusive government? People like Birtukan, other opposition leaders, journalists and a lot of ordinary citizen are scarifying their lives by being locked up, beaten up in Woyane prison to save our country and our people from the oppression of TPLF…and you are lashing out at the opposition for using your music for their political campaign! I have to say, I am disappointed and disgusted with you.

  12. Anonymous
    | #12

    መቸም ሁላችንም እንደምናውቀው

  13. እንዳለ
    | #13

    ኩራት…ባገር

  14. atuba dolla
    | #14

    Newaye Debebe is untrustworthy;now, not man,man once he was.Newaye has been in mid-life crisis;is it nature or feature? Is there a doctor in camp of Zinawians? May lord of the devils bring him cure through the songs of Solomon!

    Well,history doesn’t give its ears to Solomon Tekalegne’s song.Is there a doctor in the camp of Zinawi’s?

    Zinawi promised land to the farmers,democracy and freedom to the intellectuals and peace for Ethiopians.None of these promises has ever been realiazed.In 2005,many have been killed and another ones have been jailed and imprisoned.

    Likewise,Solomon Tekalegne promised Ethiopians that he would corageously continue fighting Zinawi,the tyrany through his songs.However,today,Solomon Tekalegne broke and wasted all the promise he made to those of ours.

    Well,at Zinawi’s camp,he is a jury and a judge praising eyebrows of Zinawi,the crimeboss;but,he is now in a lonely jorney standing on dark towers.

  15. anonymous
    | #15

    I have confirmed form reliable independent local election observers that EPRDF has lost beyond 80% of the seats in Addis Ababa!!
    updates are welcome!!

  16. BIGU
    | #16

    I don’t know what to do with those who called them selves Artists. It isn’t only Neway’s new single I am disappointed on but also Solomon Tekalegne’s!! What a bunch of idiots. Some years ago they opposed EPRDF and realise songs that move the whole nation but now look at them they are completely turned down and try to convince us something they don’t even believe in. Shame on them and sorry for them and their disgusting deed!!!!!

  17. atuba dolla
    | #17

    It is funny enough.Newaye Debebe is giving trash execuses for being slid into Zinawi’s camp.So what? mid-life crisis can happen,but can not be lamely used as an execuse for being shoved into Zinawians’ camp.

    Well,Solomon Tekaligne is a pig whose tail doesn’t cover his ass;true.Weirdly funny,laughably funny he too,praising the globally known cruel murder-addicted dictator,Meles Zinawi and a pair of eyebrows of Zinawi that don’t have any relevance to good leadership.This is obviously a casuality on the intellignece of that poor boy, Solomon Tekaligne.

    Both were born in Ethiopia and had lived in the US;but,none of them had truely and effectively assimilated to a democratic society;consequently, dived into the failures’ camp and they both reached new lows.This is a big problem;isn’t it?

    But again,funny enough,both are in intense competition to please Zinawi in a weird way in a home-soil battling for a victory.Isn’t this tragedy?

    Well,both don’t have a good grasp of freedom and democracy and peace and unity.

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