G7, OLF and EPRDF in 2012 By Yared Ayicheh

January 3rd, 2012 Print Print Email Email

Ethiopia’s politics is hungry for result, for that matter, any result, from anyone, from Satan or God. But we want result. At least I know I want result, not talk, I want to see the political stalemate to end. But deep inside I know that is out of desperateness and disillusionment. Yesterday’s, January 1, 2012, Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) meeting in Minneapolis, MN is exactly that, a result. I felt excited and yet lost; hopeful and yet terrified. But one thing is clear, Ginbot 7 (founded in 2008) has delivered, and it only took it 4 years to do so. In the context of Ethiopia’s political discourse, that is remarkable, even miraculous. But where are we heading from here on? Has Ethiopia’s politics entered the point of no return?

Very Fishy

Last year I wrote a piece expressing some of the possible dangers Ethiopia is heading into. One of the dangers I listed is that opportunist groups will jump in and take advantage of a power vacuum if and when Ethiopia descends into an uprising. I believe that is the driving force behind the result the G7 and OLF scored. But the whole thing is fishy. An OLF living in Shabia’s land, and Ginbot 7, a group albeit politically very astute and adoptive, also in cahoots with Shabia, is a terrible recipe. Not that the recipe may not achieve its aims, but once it achieves its goals, it is not going to survive its success.

The Abused will be the Abuser

An OLF with no military force to resist it will be a terrible fate for Ethiopia. I have no reason to believe the OLF at large will not push its anti-Ethiopian modality over Oromos once parts of the ‘new’ OLF gain control of the nation’s political machine. Why? Well, why would a 40+ years old organization with arms and no organized pan-Ethiopian militia to threaten it abandon its goal of a sovereign Oromia? That, too me, is an appalling gamble. When TPLF came to power in 1991 it did exactly that: it consolidated power, kicked out anyone that threatened it and dug in deep.

We are heading to another dictatorship and authoritarianism. It’s nothing new. The liberators, with no experience of liberty and freedom, will rise to the occasion to be dictators and tyrants. Did Ato Meles Zenawi hold a dream of being in power for 20 years? Or having a total control of all branches of government with no checks and balances? They all start as liberators, freedom fighters, human rights advocates. And yet, one can not claim to be something he/she already is not. Neither EPRDF, OLF nor G7 are democrats; but they all have extensive experience of being abused.

EPRDF Cornered

EPRDF is not in a position to compromise, at least that is what its track record clearly shows. It has arrested many peaceful activists in 2011. It has not shown any change of heart or show of willingness to even work with the parties in Ethiopia who have chosen nonviolence. This stance looks more like Derg’s position few years prior to its fall. In any case, even if EPRDF now is willing to form a coalition government with the opposition parties in Ethiopia, that may only send a message that EPRDF is in crisis consequently emboldening the G7/OLF’s resolve. EPRDF is indeed cornered, but not trapped yet.

Dr Messay Kebede’s Proposal

Politics is always for the likes of G7/OLF, who deliver results, even though they have miscalculated and gambled with Shabia. For EPRDF to be trapped, Ethiopia’s politics needs more results. Those who continue to talk, and not act, will be left behind. Those who continue to yell and scream about saving ‘Ethiopia and Ethiopianism’ will decay further in 2012. But a better result oriented politics than G7/OLF’s may be the only path that will save Ethiopia from the gambles of G7, OLF, and Shabia. EPRDF needs to pay attention to the likes of Dr Messay Kebede, who have proposed a win-win alternative based on political reform. Reform is in the best interest of the EPRDF, its supporters, and ALL of us. Else, Dr Birhanu Nega and others, who are politically savvy and shrewd, will produce more results and their political capital will quickly surge and their supporters will grow, for people always gravitate towards results not notions. Political reform is the only path that will neutralize the G7/OLF gamble.

May the year 2012 be a win-win year for Ethiopia!

  1. Belayneh
    | #1

    You are one of the devel that you do not want the Oromo brothers and sisters living peacefullt, harmonicly, with the others Ethiopians. No more divide and rule system workes, Oromo, Amahara, Tigre, Gurage, Somali, Sidama, and others are equal righits. In Mighty God name I pray the people of Ethiopia stands together for straggle for juistice, freedom, genuine democracy! So the declaration of OLF is not G7, it is a genuine move for Posetive Chenge which in near future all the oposition became amazingly one, the rest will be you, the snake, devil going to hell. Your days are numbered, in 2012. The Oromo praud to be EEEEEEEETTTTTTTHHHHHHHIIIIIIIOOOOOOPPPPPIIIIIIIAAAAAAAAAAAA, NOW AND FOREVER!!!!!!

  2. mimi
    | #2

    Yared ( the cult member)
    You’re unqualified apparently undermine as well as insulting the intelligence of large number of Ethiopians who are a member of G-7 and olf as well. Your approach was wrong, as it focused more on character assassination instead of providing the intended message with cogent argument. However, your accusation is baseless and not supported by any facts; instead it seems that your judgment is biased by his chauvinist ideology which is of course a typical eprp, mead and other non-existed unity forces these days loud noise to attack g7. Regardless, what the wishes of yours’ are, the OLF question should be addressed properly and have acceptable resolution instead of trying to ignore it as if it is not a political issue.
    Indeed, the G-7’s approach and attempt to work with other Ethiopian ethnic based organizations and accept their autonomous right seems wise and of course makes the democratic process very smooth and hopeful.

    Having wished the unity of Ethiopia without recognizing the autonomous of every ethnic group seems inappropriate and apparently causes more damage to the popular struggle than benefiting it. Your stubborn did not have any substance, instead it is a boring name-calling and character assassination designed to attack the leadership of G-7 in general. And yet we have seen some stupid foxy indivuals like you who want to show us a crocodile tear to the Ethiopian unity but their main target is to gain some financial and power as well as empty fame where they are simply driven by hate and emotion and keep attacking g7, day in and day out. However, the more they make a non-sense and irrelevant disgusting noise the more they expose their own evil character as well as stupid tiny power and money monger interests.
    More or less, the article is more like a character assassination. That is no good if the writer really believes Meles is taking the country in a very dangerous direction. If the writer believes g7 or olf are not good or something of that, the writer himself need to create his own organization and show to the people on how it should be governed or lead. Sometimes, it is easier for folks like this writer to criticize than put their shoe on others.

  3. GUUDO
    | #3

    It is good start coming to work together.if they realy believe and want stand up for suffering of their people they have to work with all parties and giving a chance the majority to elect them to serve these poor people.they have to fight also those power hungery within their own party members too !otherwise the history will reapt it self as melse formed eprdf to suffer all ethiopians by controlling by the gun.I HOPE G7/OLF+ ALL THE REST GROUP WILL LIBERATE OUR PEOPLE!

  4. Oda Tulu
    | #4

    I agree with the above comment by Belayneh entirely.What is wrong with Abugida in posting this destructive article from a TPLF agent in Sheep’clothing?

  5. Ensermu
    | #5

    Well done Belayneh! Yes, he (Yared) is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
    He wishes the Woyane regiem to stay.
    Viva Ethiopia!!!!!
    Down with TPLF !

    Ensermu

  6. Dawi
    | #6

    Messay’s advise to G7/OLF/EPRDF and others on his latest write up:

    ADVISE TO ALL:

    “..Opposition parties as well as the ruling party should know that their goals must be based on what is achievable. To do otherwise is to raise problems that they cannot solve for the simple reason that solvable problems are those that already implicitly contain their solutions. To project goals that do not contain their solutions is to plunge into a destructive utopianism, as illustrated by the mistakes and subsequent demise of the Ethiopian leftist forces after the overthrow of the monarchy in 1974..”

    ADVISE TO THE RULING PARTY:

    “…The good usage of power is not repression, but the implementation of reforms that have the long-term outcome of integrating its own sectarian interests into the national interests. Since this process of integration is the sure way of avoiding revolutionary uprisings, which sound the end of reformism in favor of the overthrow of the existing regime..”

    “..The only way out is political opening, as shown by the evolution of the Burmese military rulers, who came back to political opening after effecting a similar crackdown on the winning opposition party. The lesson that the Woyanne should learn is that the retraction of democratic rights is a recipe for economic mismanagement and stagnation and hence is not even in line with their own long-term interests…”

    IT’S THE CONSTITUTION STUPID:

    “..Above all, the Burmese Constitution has the advantage of promising a gradual democratization while the Woyanne’s attitude of denying rights permitted by the Constitution blocks political evolution, giving Ethiopians no other option than violent uprisings…”

    FINALLY MESSAY QUESTIONS:

    “…to the extent that the impasse deprecates nonviolent opposition, it promises nothing but uncertain outcomes for Ethiopia as well as for those who control power…”

    “… Why wait until things get out of hands with animosity reaches a boiling point even as solutions able to reconcile all interests can be worked out?…”

  7. Some cannot be trusted!
    | #7

    When people like Yared fails to mention TPLF by name and call them EPRDF, that is one of the signs to distinguish which side the writers are. I’m afraid, this yared might be a TPLF agent. Yared is the same person who belittled Ethiopians for suggesting to boycott Newaye Debebe. Yared didn’t explain why we shouldn’t boycott people who dines, wines and dance with the current regime that have spilled the blood of countless number of Ethiopians, left the country landlocked, loot the country, and sold the land of Ethiopia to lowest bidders. It is unfortunate that, there are a few Ethiopians out there who have sold their souls for mighty dollar, I don’t know for sure if Yared has done that, be we have to be conscious. At this critical time, please, Abugida be very selective whose article you want your reader to read.

  8. Samuel
    | #8

    A while back a friend of mine told me about Abugida’s slanted coverage of news and opinions about Ethiopia. I followed it up and it sure appears that it is slanted towards the EPRP-likes and their cohorts in its coverage. These days the editors seem to be bent on neutralizing (if they can) diaspora opposition forces coming together as long as it is not blessed by their kinds. It is telling.

  9. visitor
    | #9

    THE OROMO LIBERATION FRONT CHANGE COURSE AND ANNOUNCE TO TO FIGHT THE BRUTAL REGIME OF THE TIGRAY LIBERATION FRONT WITH ALL PEACE LOVING ETHIOPIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES.THIS IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO IT IS A NOBLE THING TO DO IN PART OF OLF.NOW THE OROMO’S THE GURAGES THE SIDAMAS THE AMAMRA ALL ETHNIC IN ETHIOPIA MUST RISE UP AGAINIST THE BLOODY DICTATOR AND BUILD ETHIOPIA FOR ALL CITZENS EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ETHIOPIANS NOT ONLY FOR TIGRAY PEOPLE LIBERATION FRONT THOSE TIGRYAN WHO ARE NOT TPLF MUST SHOW THEIR SOLIDARITY IN THE FIGHT AGAINIST TPLF NOW THEY HAVE TO SHOW THEIR SUPPORT TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN THE BLOODY DICTATORSHIP OF TIGRAY LIBERATION FRONT IN ETHIOPIA.ALL ETHIOPIANS THIS IS THE TIME OUR TIME TO END THE MISERY OF ETHIOPIAN PEOPLE.THE ETHIOPIAN LAND IS TAKEN BY FORCE AND GIVEN TO OUTSIDERS WHAT IS NEXT ETHIOPIANS?WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO GIVE YOU GAVE UP ALL YOUR RIGHTS ALL OF YOU ETHIOPIANS WHAT IS LEFT OF YOU? ANSWER ME THE TPLF IS GOING TO GIVE UP YOUR FAMILY NEXT IF YOU ETHIOPIANS SAY NO ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

  10. visitor
    | #10

    THE OROMO LIBERATION FRONT CHANGE COURSE AND ANNOUNCE TO TO FIGHT THE BRUTAL REGIME OF THE TIGRAY LIBERATION FRONT WITH ALL PEACE LOVING ETHIOPIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES.THIS IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO IT IS A NOBLE THING TO DO IN PART OF OLF.NOW THE OROMO’S THE GURAGES THE SIDAMAS THE AMAMRA ALL ETHNIC IN ETHIOPIA MUST RISE UP AGAINIST THE BLOODY DICTATOR AND BUILD ETHIOPIA FOR ALL CITZENS EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ETHIOPIANS NOT ONLY FOR TIGRAY PEOPLE LIBERATION FRONT THOSE TIGRYAN WHO ARE NOT TPLF MUST SHOW THEIR SOLIDARITY IN THE FIGHT AGAINIST TPLF NOW THEY HAVE TO SHOW THEIR SUPPORT TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN THE BLOODY DICTATORSHIP OF TIGRAY LIBERATION FRONT IN ETHIOPIA.ALL ETHIOPIANS THIS IS THE TIME OUR TIME TO END THE MISERY OF ETHIOPIAN PEOPLE.THE ETHIOPIAN LAND IS TAKEN BY FORCE AND GIVEN TO OUTSIDERS WHAT IS NEXT ETHIOPIANS?WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO GIVE YOU GAVE UP ALL YOUR RIGHTS ALL OF YOU ETHIOPIANS WHAT IS LEFT OF YOU? ANSWER ME THE TPLF IS GOING ASK YOU TO GIVE UP YOUR FAMILY NEXT IF YOU ETHIOPIANS DIDIN’T SAY NO ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

  11. visitor
    | #11

    THE OROMO LIBERATION FRONT CHANGE COURSE AND ANNOUNCE TO TO FIGHT THE BRUTAL REGIME OF THE TIGRAY LIBERATION FRONT WITH ALL PEACE LOVING ETHIOPIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES.THIS IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO IT IS A NOBLE THING TO DO IN PART OF OLF.NOW THE OROMO’S THE GURAGES THE SIDAMAS THE AMAMRA ALL ETHNIC IN ETHIOPIA MUST RISE UP AGAINIST THE BLOODY DICTATOR AND BUILD ETHIOPIA FOR ALL CITZENS EQUAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL ETHIOPIANS NOT ONLY FOR TIGRAY PEOPLE LIBERATION FRONT THOSE TIGRYAN WHO ARE NOT TPLF MUST SHOW THEIR SOLIDARITY IN THE FIGHT AGAINIST TPLF NOW THEY HAVE TO SHOW THEIR SUPPORT TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN THE BLOODY DICTATORSHIP OF TIGRAY LIBERATION FRONT IN ETHIOPIA.ALL ETHIOPIANS THIS IS THE TIME OUR TIME TO END THE MISERY OF ETHIOPIAN PEOPLE.THE ETHIOPIAN LAND IS TAKEN BY FORCE AND GIVEN TO OUTSIDERS WHAT IS NEXT ETHIOPIANS?WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO GIVE YOU GAVE UP ALL YOUR RIGHTS ALL OF YOU ETHIOPIANS WHAT IS LEFT OF YOU? ANSWER ME THE TPLF IS GOING ASK YOU TO GIVE UP YOUR FAMILY NEXT IF YOU ETHIOPIANS DON’T SAY NO ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

  12. Anonymous
    | #12

    I think this is a new strategy by the Oromos to get their foot into power .It may work Lets try it if not we may get into a big mess like a civil war and then come clear and may be unite again who knows .

  13. yedebreberhanu
    | #13

    I think this is a new strategy by the Oromos to get their foot into power .It may work Lets try it if not we may get into a big mess like a civil war and then come clear and may be unite again who knows .

  14. Anon
    | #14

    [Samuel],

    “Abugida’s slanted coverage of news and opinions about Ethiopia. I followed it up and it sure appears that it is slanted towards the EPRP-likes and their cohorts in its coverage.”

    Where is the evidence that led you to this conclusion? You implied that this writer is in your own word -’EPRP cohert.’I am not aginst organizations who seek military solution to remove TPLF provided these armed wings come under one representative central poltical leadership.Before every thing else we have to be honest to ourselves and to the people we pretend to represent.Regarding this the one undiniable fact is this-Ethiopian people are wary of sectarian armed struggle and politcs. We can not gloss over this for fundamental truth that have dominated the country’s politics.I tend to believe contrary to your claim,ABUGIDA,is the most respected Ethiopia’s democratic forum.

    I believe your criticism is undeserving to the editors of this forum which are striving to promote democratic discourse,peace ,and justice for Ethiopia. Beside, it is the former EPRP members that are advocating raprochment between ONLF and G-7.Just to mention some of the former EPRP memberes behind this vision are the folowing, Dr. Berihanu,Dr.Getachew,Andargachew, Efriem Mndibo.Why are you then criticizing EPRPits? If there is any thing divisive in this I think it is your remark.

  15. Get out of here
    | #15

    Samuel, ante trouble maker, your anonymous friends are TPLF thugs.

  16. Bright Hope
    | #16

    @Dawi
    Dawi,

    That is an excellent summary.

    The bomb is ticking and Woyane does not seem to pay attention at all. Perhaps are have all become fat from corruption!

    Win win is for Ethiopia!

  17. Gudeta Alemayehu.
    | #17

    It sad about the writer.do you know that woyane is the repression, intimidation,corruption,deception,brutalization,violation,destitution and bloodsucking government.So It is good start coming to work together.if they realy believe and want stand up for suffering of their people they have to work with all parties and giving a chance the majority to elect them to serve these poor people.they have to fight also those power hungery within their own party members too !otherwise the history will reapt it self as melse formed eprdf to suffer all ethiopians by controlling by the gun.I HOPE G7/OLF+ ALL THE REST GROUP WILL LIBERATE OUR PEOPLE from duckred, hoodunined,victimized, shafted, robbed,and fleeced!

  18. Samrawit
    | #18

    The man using the alias Yared is obviously a TPLF man and is attacking the true opposition. What he scribbled above shows that the latest poistive political developments are causing fear and worries in the rank and file of the TPLF. The fascist and racist Meles Zenwi always uses his potent weapon of division, the OLF card to stay in power. The weyannes have been entertaining and taking for granted that the Oromos can always be fooled and used as simple tools against their enemies,the Amharas. Now they are realizing and panicking that this old weyanne formula is not going to work.

  19. Mengistu D
    | #19

    These days several socallled opposition parties are writing endlessly that “OLF” has changed its Programme and has given up its seccesionist agenda. That is not true at all. The real OLF has never made such declarations and it will never make.OPDO No-1has never succeded to win the hearts of oromo people inspite of allround support from TPLF. The new false OLF (or OPDO No-2) will never be able to manipulate the oromo people. The network of the true OLF is too extensive and very deeprooted among the oromo people.Most of the so called opposition parties are loyal opposition forces whose aim is to mislead the ethiopian people and prevent the growth of strong opposition force to challenge the ethiopian regime.Days are bound to come when the people understand thier treacherous act and make the right judgement.

  20. deriba Gotchu
    | #20

    Lets’s get real
    To all the commentators on this article
    This person presented something about compromise (reform). The goveronment should compromise. the diaspera should compromise. Above all the indivduals who put this comments up should also sober down and understand to learn the importance and value of compromise. He should be commended for that. Not called names and classified as u r either A or B.
    Isn’t that the so called OLF trying to do? In my view, this is the most inteligient and brave political (policy) descision OLF have ever made. Winding up good citizens to rise up and murder their life long poor defnceless neighbours and friends has never been a smart politic. Creating differences between people where there should be none has always been frought with problems one can’t deal with his good faculties. Personaaly, I have always believed secession to be a cope out or a way out of a difficult situation one is not equiped to deal with; I hope I am wrong! Regardless, I wonder Why it took these forty somethingers to chater a new and in my view is the right and potentially effective course, ie if it is genuine. Hope it is real and not some chelese sawn by the last mad man in Africa from the North-”the greatest Colonilasim theorist ever invented”, ‘STUPID’. One would say maturity, may be so. In anycase, welcome to the realism of politics, OLF.

  21. Bekalu
    | #21

    Mengistu D ,

    What and who is the real OLF? You are confused more than the most confused man in the world

  22. Anonymous
    | #22

    Be vigilant, Ethiopians! We are going to hear from undercover TPLF agents and Eritreans to deceive and put doubts in our minds about OLF. BEWARE MY FRIENDS! READ BETWEEN THE LINES OF WHAT THEY ARE SAYING! JUST BEWARE OF THESE HATEFUL GROUPS THAT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DISTRACTIONS OF OUR MOTHERLAND ETHIOPIA, THE LOOTING AND MOST OF ALL, FOR THE UNNECESSARY LOSS OF OUR ETHIOPIAN BROTHERS AND SISTERS LIVES! BE ALERT AT ALL TIMES!!! THESE CRIMINALS WILL SAY ANYTHING TO CONTINUE THEIR LOOTING AND THEIR CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES!!

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