At the end of the era of TPLF driven regime By Robele Ababya

July 6th, 2013 Print Print Email Email

Ethiopia on the threshold of new era of democracy

Ethiopia is on the threshold of ushering in a new era of lasting democratic dispensation and building a compassionate and tolerant multi-cultural society under the supremacy of law. Political activists, civil society organizations and the people yearning for real change are looking for the day of the demise of the TPLF/EPRDF brutal regime and the establishment of a transitional arrangement leading to a democratically elected government for the first time creating and enduring culture of transferring power through the ballot box. Unless and until the change of regime occurs it would be impossible to tackle divisive issues related to violation of human rights, atrocious moral decay within the country, and building of the GERD – which requires national consensus.

The greatest demonstration in Egypt unprecedented in the history of the world succeeded in deposing the ex-President Mr. Mohamed Morsi thus dealing a heavy blow to his religious Moslem Brotherhood Party, which connived with him to highjack the Egyptian revolution in their favor. Morsi was therefore dethroned by unprecedented massive demand of the people – not by a military coup. The Egyptian Army merely stood with and fulfilled the will of the people thereby making history from which the Ethiopian defenses forces and African tyrants should learn. It is very strange indeed that the African Union suspended membership of Egypt this time forgetting it did not do so when Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in 2011.
The emerging democracy in Egypt coupled with the birth of similar democracy in Ethiopia will culminate in a strong regional power relationship conducive to peace, good governance, stability and prosperity.

The exploitation of racial issues by opportunist Oromo elites is all but dead. The overwhelming inter-married Ethiopians of today bound by blood as children of ETHIOP will bury divisive ethnicity and forge ahead with the noble task of building a democratic Ethiopia equal for all under the rule of law made and approved by the people.

Lo and behold! Democracy is knocking at the door steps of Ethiopians at home and in the Diaspora waiting to enter. It is now time to usher it in with the revolutionary songs: Abet, Taitu, Tenesa Teramed, Lanchi newe Ethiopia et al.

Transitional arrangement; Multilateral power politics

Are the opposition entities, civic organizations, and the Ethiopian people ready for the transitional arrangement leading to full-fledged democracy? How are they lined up? What would be the likely outcome of the line up? To answer these questions readers are invited to first of all examine the following array of entities braced to intensify action to oppose the repressive ruling party bent on to stay in power at any cost:-

A.UDJP, Blue Party, AEUP, all other national political parties, MEDREK, SMNE, EPRP-D, Medhin, ENTC, SHENGO (The Ethiopian People’s Congress for United Struggle), GASHA, ENYM (Ethiopian National Youth Movement)

B. G7, G7 popular force; ALEJE (Alliance for Liberty Equality, and Justice in TPDM, Ethiopia), EPPF, EUFF, EPRP, OLF-new (led by General K. Gelchu)

C.ONLF, OLF, ODF, ANLF, ALF

D.TPLF/EPRDF party and its fabricated breeds

Each of the four groups is likely to engage its other three rivals in three modes: confrontational, cooperative or collaborative. Moreover there will be internal struggle within each group not to mention infiltration by cadres of the ruling regime. Therefore the quality of members and strict discipline will determine the success of a group.
A B

C D

Figure – 1

In the above figure the letters A, B, C, D denote: pro-Ethiopian unity national democratic entities embracing peaceful method of struggle short of pulling the trigger; pro-Ethiopian unity democratic movements with all-inclusive method of struggle; liberation movements with secessionist agenda; and the destructive TPLF/EPRDF party and its fabricated affiliates in that order. The stance of each group on the unity of Ethiopia is an overriding factor in ranking its favorability to the people of Ethiopia in the political process. Here below is my view of what will transpire in the process.

Groups A and B have identical and unequivocal stand on the unity of Ethiopia with a reconcilable difference in their method of struggle, the latter reserving its right to all-inclusive, which the former also will be forced to embrace in self-defense in response to armed attack by the repressive ruling party. They have both significant contributions in weakening the TPLF/EPRDF regime

In group C: (i) the ODF will probably merge with either group A or B in time for one of its senior members Mr. Lencho Bati had publicly stated work is in progress to change the acronym ODF to EDF, Ethiopian Democratic Front; (ii) I believe that the interests of the Afar National Liberation Front (ANLF) and Afar Liberation Front (AFL) will be better served by not ceding from a democratic Ethiopia; the ONLF leaders should realize that Ethiopians have shed their blood fighting Fascist Italy in the Ogaden and have therefore the right to demand that the Front should drop its secession scheme if any; (iii) the OLF-old under Daoud Ibssa is all but dead since it carries the stigma of OLF stripped naked of its weapons and its leaders disgracefully sent into exile by the TPLF warlords and giving empty promise of emancipating the Oromo people for the last 22 years.

The TPLF/EPRDF party together with its fabricated breeds in group D is the main targets of groups A, B, C and as such will be crushed by the impending massive popular wrath and corruption and heinous crimes, imploding the powerhouse of the TPLF built on sand. However it is reasonable to expect migration of junior members in group D to either A or B. It will make sense to accept them on merit after a careful background check.

Finally groups A, B, and C will contest for power, but group C can hardly wield sufficient popular support to engage the might of either group A or B. It stands to reason that three political parties may emerge from A and B; this would be a good omen for ushering in a democratic Ethiopia.

Formidable challenges for the opposition & the Ethiopian people

The following are but some of the most critical inputs to the foreign and domestic policy formulation that will have to be undertaken during and after transitional government

1.Ethiopian waters and fertile land are the most precious natural resources our nation has got; our rivers and fertile land suitable for agriculture are priceless jewels more than diamond; mighty weapons to deter aggression against traditional enemies; irreplaceable sources for growing food in abundance and sell the surplus to the Middle East thus becoming the food basket of that region. It goes without saying that the management of these natural resources requires national consensus based on scientific studies taking into consideration the right of regions (Kilils) to tame their rivers tributary to the Blue Nile and build dams for irrigation and electric power generation.

2.Immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners in Ethiopia; respect for Universal declaration on human rights; amendment to the present constitution of the TPLF/EPRDF, Article 39 in particular.

3.Rampant youth unemployment: This an explosive issue not only for Ethiopia but several countries in the world.

4.Private property including land: This is a reliable and effective engine for economic growth and national security because people will have vested interest to defend what they own.

5.Secular state: Separation of politics from religion is a fundamental principle; the former is an earthly matter which concerns all Ethiopians and the latter is in the heavenly domain exclusive to spiritual choice of the individual.

6.Expenditure on security and defense has up to the present proved an intolerable hemorrhage on natural resources; several internal battles had been fought in the last 72 years after victory over Fascist Italy with the help of the British army. The war of aggression by Somalia was won with the help of Cuba and the defunct USSR. But the civil war with Shaebia and its surrogate TPLF assisted by the Arab reactionaries has been lost, leaving Ethiopia a landlocked country. Moreover a large chunk of fertile land has been ceded to the Sudan and Ethiopia’s right over the Nile water was betrayed by the secret agreement of the 1993 Nile Accord signed between tyrant Meles Zenawi and dictator Hosni Mubarak. The failure to put in place an independent national security and defense establishment begs for extensive surgical analysis.

7.The GERD if built at its present site without reducing its size would be prone to attack which the TPLF warlords would use as justification to purchase from Russia advanced military equipment. It would be a waste of money to enrich the Russians and get kickback for the corrupt TPLF warlords. Imagine how much money was spent building the Ethiopian army in the last several decades; the humiliating result is that Ethiopia is now a landlocked country.

8.Egypt gets more than its share of the Blue Nile water. I am informed by a reliable water resources Ethiopian senior engineer, who was holding a high position in the Ethiopian Water Resource Authority during the Derg regime that building the GERD is to the advantage of the Sudan and Egypt. He cited as an example that for cleaning alluvial soil Sudan used to pay 210 million US dollars per annum to Ethiopia and this would be lost because only clean water would flow to through the RD. In other wards Sudan and Egypt would no longer need alluvial soil from Ethiopia. The same reputed engineer told me that there was a plan to divert some Blue Nile tributaries in Shoa to the Awash River to increase its volume. It was a very sensible plan. So even the brutal Derg regime had to its credit asserted Ethiopia’s sovereignty over the Blue Nile. The future democratic government of Ethiopia would do no less in asserting the veto power of Ethiopia in any multilateral forum regarding the development of the Nile Basin to which our country contributes 85% of the water.

I close this piece with my daily mantra, which is: Demand the immediate and unconditional release of all prisoners of conscience including Andualem Aragie, Eskinder Nega, Bekele Gerba, Reeyot Alemu, Leaders of the Ethiopian Muslims et al!

LONG LIVE ETHIOPIA!!!
rababya@gmail.com

  1. Anonymous
    | #1

    Dude, the dust hasn’t even began to settle in Egypt and you want to hold it up as a model to be emulated????

  2. Gragn Ahmed
    | #2

    ex-President Mr. Mohamed Morsi thus dealing a heavy blow to his religious Moslem Brotherhood Party, which connived with him to highjack the Egyptian revolution in their favor. Morsi was therefore dethroned by unprecedented massive demand of the people – not by a military coup”

    That religion you hate is not good for Ethiopian Muslims. If Ethiopia is a Muslim what is your point here as long as Ethiopia is Muslim and one. I am sure Saudi helped Muslim Brotherhood who did not like Salafist General Sissy. Here you go, Saud may use its hands to revolt using the military. Is any military in Ethiopia a salafi?

    Only 9/21 government Ministers is Muslim while Ethiopian Muslims are 67%.

    Somalis have been tortured by the Amhara elites who ought Italy in Oganden. Even Eritrea was not saved. So what is your point here? You can die for the wrong reason. I saw childish comment on your part here. Why Amaras are found everywhere in Ethiopia but the same can not be said of Eritreans or Tigrains to some extent but not Oromos or Somalis or Afars??/

  3. anonymous
    | #3

    at first i liked the article what it aspired about the future of Ethiopia. i support that unity brings forth what we all desire a prosperous democratic and liberated Ethiopia not division and disintegration. no country in the world became a great nation by dividing its people just to clasp on power and money. but when it got to the end it became a bit of unrealistic and some what ridiculous. The talk of conspiracies and skims came across a bit of paranoid delusions.

  4. Girma
    | #4

    Dear Robele,

    You seem detached from the reality of the country. Please go back to it and understand the 21st century Ethiopia.

  5. Dawi
    | #5

    [[..The greatest demonstration in Egypt unprecedented in the history of the world succeeded in deposing the ex-President Mr. Mohamed Morsi thus dealing a heavy blow to his religious Moslem Brotherhood Party,..]]

    Morsi supporters will say the army betrayed their revolution. No end game. There is nothing to praise.

    The army’s intervention does not of itself do anything to tackle Egypt’s huge economic problems. Can’t you see Egypt is more divided now?

    [[..Democracy is knocking at the door steps of Ethiopians at home and in the Diaspora waiting to enter...]]

    Democracy is knocking but it won’t do us any good without a sustainable underlying economy.

    [[..Sudan used to pay 210 million US dollars per annum to Ethiopia..]]

    What? Derg made that? This has to be a typo..

  6. Anonymous
    | #6

    Brain fart is all I have to say. Since English is 2nd language for Ethiopians one would expect simple lines would do the trick.

  7. Anonymous
    | #7

    All Ethiopians should first foremost bleive and accept that every member of the Ethiopian ethnic group can hold office of Precidency if elected.

  8. Anonymous
    | #8

    JZLO
    wat is democracy mean to u? U r seeing urself as analysit and great predicter just b coz u write zis damm article, arent u a racist, biased and foggy? C ur article again…asshole!

  9. dodo
    | #9

    what a statement from a person who says that he believes in democracy. How can he support a coup d’etat which takes power from a legitimately elected government. Everything else he says is a SHAM!

  10. Kato
    | #10

    Unity is a must if in deed the struggle is for freedom, equality and justice. What is our least common denominator where we can all agree on? Let’s keep that in mind and be prepated to give everyone the benefit of a doubt. That said the situation in Egypt and the conflict that we are seeing is a very complicated and volatile movement, since some relegious motivated emotions are injected in that commotion. We can only hope that this type of religious motivated movement or politics is not going to take place in our country. One can definitely argue why an elected government official, mind you elected in accordance with the constitution of the country, elected in a democratic fashion be deposed? In Ethiopia we haven’t even gotten that far. Our people have been denied the fruits of that hard fought election victory. So the Egytians in that context are a step further than we are. But what has transpired in Egypt is not unusual. Even in Europe elected officials get removed if found untrustworthy inline with the constitution and rule of law without blood letting. Mursi underestimated the people and he has received the receipt for his actions. What the people in Egypt averted is the following: sleep while democracy is out there and wake up to find dictatorship. Leadership is all about the people, all inclusive and not about the leader and his beliefs. Granted one can not satisfy everyone but at least the basics are in place where all see the common good.
    In our case that molten magma is shaking the the earth, the point of ignition is just around the corner regardless of what is taking place else where. Leaders Take heed and listen to that tremor and change for the better while there is time. As opposed to what many believe the majority of Ethiopians do not care who governs as long as good governance and the rule of law is applied in all walks of life. Where there is a level playing field etc… It doesn’t matter which tribe one belongs to it shall be clear that unchecked power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely and therefore that has to be dealt and done away with if true development and prosperity is the aim.
    At last freedom to all that are behind bars journalists and relgious leaders.
    Ethiopia will prevail
    Respectfully

  11. ikanssa
    | #11

    Yes, Morsi undoubtedly has met his fate; soon, either in prison or in detention center, or in house confinement; well, whatever is suitable for him to be settled in, he will soon be bad history.

    The regime in Ethiopia has its won fate worse and uglier than Morsi’s. Right now, the hiwhat regime is in deep confusion and mess; elements in the high hierarchy are infighting on deep suspicion of one another as to what is going on behind one another’s back and as well as behind the curtain and underneath the carpet. The shoes that their feet in is unfitting and worn out, as well; so is the ground they stand on, it is shaking due to the quake that is going up on a Richter scale; it is coming! the entire system hiwhat put in place is shaking towards its final crush over the Meles Zenawi’s grave.

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