Some Notes on the Declaration by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Use of the Nile By Fekade Shewakena

April 1st, 2015 Print Print Email Email

Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have signed what they called the ‘Declaration of Principles” to solve a simmering dispute over the building of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by Ethiopia. Although a lot remains to be seen at the level of technical details, the approach followed by the three countries to engage in a negotiated resolution of the dispute is in line with much needed civilized discourse and is highly commendable. Rants like by the previous Egyptian leader’s, Mr. Morse’s, that Egypt will trade a drop of blood for every drop of its Nile water is insane. I am happy that guy is gone hopefully along with his crazy ideas. Times have changed and Egypt cannot war its way to stopping Ethiopia from using its share of the water on the Nile and secure its interests. The acknowledgment by the current leaders of Egypt that old ways and obsolete treaties will not govern current and future water distribution from the Nile is a big step forward into civilization.

I have observed a barrage of criticisms of this Declaration by several Ethiopians some of whom called it a total give away by Ethiopia. Government officials and their supporters on the other hand, lauded the agreement and are trying to sell it as a big achievement for Ethiopia. There is also a serious debate among experts and politicians in Egypt over the implications of the agreement. Some Egyptians claim Egypt is the victor while other say it is a complete looser in the agreement (See here). In my view, Ethiopians who criticized this declaration as an Ethiopian give away and supporters and officials of the government who call it an Ethiopian victory have arrived at hasty conclusions. First of all, the agreement is only a framework for dealing with contentious issues and far from a done deal. It contains only a set of general and broad guidelines most of which can be interpreted variably by each side in the agreement. For example, statements like ‘causing significant damage” can be interpreted by each party differently. When do we say a significant damage has occurred and who determines a damage as significant? The devil is sitting in the technical, scientific and legal details that are to come as the dam building and next step negotiations progress. Potential problems can be expected from the recommendations of the tripartite council that the three countries are going to set up to help them deal with technical matters. That is where our eyes should focus.

Understandably, many Ethiopians do not trust their government on preserving the national interest and have good reasons for their suspicion. The government’s records on the Algiers Agreement following the Ethio-Eritrean war and more recent agreements to cede land to the Sudanese government on the basis of dubious justifications, have created a widespread suspicion that the Ethiopian officials could not mind ceding vital Ethiopian national interests for political expediency. But criticisms should be based on clear understanding of the legal and technical meanings of the agreement than suspicion. Criticisms like the one by Dr. Aklog Birrarra who claims that the agreement is a diplomatic coup for Egypt (See here) is a stretch and exaggeration as much as the claims by those on the side of the government who shamelessly claim it is a winning achievement for Ethiopia (See here). This is the time for cautious and sober analysis of potential problems by people who understand the technical, scientific, engineering and legal problems that the current broad agreement does and does not address. We need information from experts who can educate us on potential disadvantages and advantages associated with any agreements for Ethiopia. My personal observation is that the potential for quarrel and confrontation is not avoided at this stage of the agreement. Given the zeal and determination of Egyptians not to see even a considerable decrease in their share of the water, it will be foolish to rule out serious disagreements in the not distant future. We will be better served if we understand that this is not going to be a smooth ride. Ethiopian officials will be doing a great harm by over selling this agreement. They will have to eat their words if the agreement falters and confrontations ensue.

I believe we Ethiopians need to evaluate and discuss this agreement and subsequent technical agreements outside of our political views. We have to understand that the leaders of our country, whether we like them or not, are going to make a historic and binding agreement with long-term, even permanent, consequences for Ethiopia. Even if we suspect them of loving their power more than the national interest, we may have to do everything possible to push them to do the right thing by staking their decision to the political risk they will be taking and their accountability to history. Good faith analysis, appropriate criticisms and suggestions by experts are needed at this stage to help the public understand the consequences of this declaration as well as subsequent agreements.

As I said above, most of the devil is in the technical and scientific details. This does not however mean that there are no valid questions to be raised even at this stage. There are some glaring areas the Ethiopian negotiators seem to have missed opportunities to put phraseology that show much needed emphasis for Ethiopia. A closer look at this Declaration shows that a lot of the burden of making sure that there is a sustained flow of Nile waters to Egypt and Sudan is put on Ethiopia’s shoulders.

Since the source of the water is Ethiopia, this may not be surprising on the face of it. But if there is a scarcity of water in the future as global trends show, how do the three countries share the scarcity? Say, for example, if subsequent years of drought on the Nile basin yield very little water, who has to suffer the most? Or do we take the suffering equally? What is going to happen to water scarcity which is bound to occur with the rise in population in all three countries, all of which expect a doubling in about 25 years? How is the population of Ethiopia living in the vast Nile basin going to use its share of the water for irrigation? Recent observations of the shrinking of some rift valley lakes of Ethiopia are good indicators that water from the highlands flowing into these lakes is decreasing progressively. This will not be different for the GERD reservoir. This has huge implications for sustaining an agreement that guarantees a flow without considerable harm to the downstream countries. In my view, the assumption that Egypt and Sudan will get a sustained water flow and live without considerable loss and harm is a false and dangerous promise. The so called significant damage could occur because of natural causes. The agreement is silent on the question of how these kinds of issue are going to be handled.

What the Ethiopian side also missed in the current Declaration of Principles is a clear enunciation that emphasizes water conservation and modernized economic use of water by downstream countries. We know there is huge water wastage in downstream countries that this Declaration should have addressed as unacceptable. Egyptians have been spoiled to levels of laziness when it comes to water wastage. Ethiopia also could have been within its rights to demand that it be consulted before Egypt and Sudan embark on construction of new water projects such as the construction of canals or dams and all attempts to transport water to develop their desert areas. Operations like the Toshka Canal in Egypt, formations of endorheic lakes in the Sahara Desert of Egypt and issues of control of evaporation should have been raised as serious concerns when stating the Declaration. Ethiopia cannot look at this like, once water gets out of Ethiopia, the downstream countries can do anything they want. In Egypt alone, as much as 10% of the water is lost through evaporation. A large amount is also lost through wastage and seepage in the network of irrigation canals. If Ethiopia is to be liable to significant damage because of water shortage, she can also demand that downstream countries use pipes to transport water for irrigation instead of open canals that expose the water to huge evaporation in a desert climate. We have to be aware that global climate change trends show that the future is fraught with a lot of water shortage that could perhaps lead to serious confrontations among countries that share the same river basins and this cannot leave us alone. Can’t Ethiopia also raise about the alternatives to the Nile? Egypt, for example, has a huge underground water in the Nubian Desert that is probably more than what the Nile water can provide them for centuries. Desalinations of sea water are also big alternatives for Egypt. When Egyptians demand to get an optimal amount of water from the Blue Nile, can’t Ethiopia tell the Egyptians to also make an optimal use of their other water sources? Another practical question is why is Ethiopia not asking compensation for the time that it extends to fill up the dam and the opportunity costs it incurs. Ethiopia will be having that all the problems of big dams that we have seen around the world. If it gets loose on its agreements, it will be frequently dragged to answer more questions than it can answer.

On Ethiopia’s side it is true that we have a series of important unanswered questions at this stage. Some may be answered at technical agreement levels. Wholesale criticism and blanket support of the current Declaration of Principles are foolish exercises because they are less likely to change the reality. Ethiopia’s national interest would be served better if we all take this thing out of the political football and educate the public and ourselves as to the gains and losses that come with any agreement with basin countries. There is a serious need for knowledge regarding the technical and legal issues surrounding the agreements. Then if we oppose or agree any of the decisions it will be because of knowledge we have about the significance of the problem rather than the politics of it.

One last question to the Ethiopian government – why are we not getting an official Amharic translation of the Declaration? Why don’t we hear experts rather than politicians analyze the agreement in language that the public understands? They are doing it in Egypt, why can’t we?

  1. Tango
    | #1

    I got important points from this article especially regarding water wastage by downstream countries .Thank you

  2. Dawi
    | #2

    Fekade said:

    [[..One last question to the Ethiopian government – why are we not getting an official Amharic translation of the Declaration? Why don’t we hear experts rather than politicians analyze the agreement in language that the public understands? They are doing it in Egypt, why can’t we?..]]

    Great questions?

    I shall start by saying Fekade’s write up is a breath of fresh air!

    Some called the agreement “a total give away by Ethiopia” including the least expected one Obang of SMNE. I wondered if they had an inside information or what are they smoking? :-)

    If there are experts in the field they won’t rush to judgment and we will here from them in time. Prof. Tecola is one we know of and has already written a wonderful balanced piece; I am sure it will show up here soon.

    | #3

    ውድ ሸዋቀና, ባንተ በኩል ተንጠራርቸ የሚከተለውን ለተኮላ እና እንዲሁም ለጠቅላላው ህብረተሰባችን ሳስተላልፍ ቅር እንደማይልህ ባለሙሉ ተስፋ ልሁን?

    In continuation of ቀምተህ ታጠቅ፣ እንዲሁም ቂም በቀልነትን ከፍ ለማድረግ ሑመራን በአይነ ስውር ማስተዳደር፣

    ሲቀማሙ ሲቀማሙ በመጨረሻው ግን ሁሉም አንድ ቦታ ላይ ተገናኙ፣ ሁሉም ደግሞ በአስመራ በኩልም ይሁን፣ በካይሮ ወይንም በቀጥታ በአዲስ አበባው መስመር ገንዘብ ሳይደርሳቸው እንዳልቀረ እንገምታለን! ሁሉም ግብፅን እያገለገሉ ነው! ቲዎረቲሻኑም በመሳደብም ይሁን በማወደስ ተኮላ ሆነ፣ ወቸው ጉድ፣ የስልጣን ጥም የማያስቀባጥረው ነገር እንደሌለው እየታዘብን ነው! In Dedebit, „our“ slogan was: „ካብ ፀላኢኻ ደርጊ ኣሕዲካ ተዓጠቅ“፣ የመቀማትን ጉዳይ እስከ አሁንም ጊዜ ቢሆን እንደ ፅላተ ሙሴ እያመንበት ነው ያለነውን? „ትግሬ ነው ወይንስ ሰው“ ብለው የአጋስስ ለንጨጫቸውን ከከፈቱ በኋላ በቀን ሰራተኛው ትግራዋይ ላይ ተኩስ ያነጣተሩትን አጋስስ ወልቃይቶችን ከቤታቸው መንጥረን ወደ ሱዳን ከባረርናቸው በኋላ፣ በውርደት ላይ ውርደት ስንጨምርባቸውም መንደራቸው ሑመራን ደግሞ በገዛ የራሳቸው አይነ ስውራቸው አድርገን ነበር ያስተዳደርነው፣ አሁንም አዲስንም ሆነ ጠቅላላ ኢትዮጵያን ምንም እንዃን አይናቸው ለምለም ሳር እንዳየ በሬ ቢያፈጥም ልባቸው ግን በታወሩ አጋስሶች አድርገን ነው የምናስተዳድራት ያለነው! ተኮላ wanna join them! ዋናውን ሞተር ማሌሊታዊው ክፋቱን ግን ትወጠዋለህን? እድሜ ለአንኮበር ክፋትንማ ተምረናል፣ እንዲሉት በየዋሁ ትግርኛችን፣ „ካፍታያ ክፉእ ዝገብሩኻስ ክፉእ ዘምህሩኻ ገደደ“፣ Hallo ተኮላ፣ በሃይማኖታዊው ልምዳችን፣ አንተ ዩሁዳ ብለን ረግመ እናብቃ ወይንስ Tiefenpsychologieን አገላብጠን በተለይም የA. Adler indvidual Psychologie ባደረገው ምርምር እንንከባከብህ! Unbewustኡ ፍላጎታችን bewustኡን ግንዛብያችንን እየገፈተረ ሲገፋው የሚለውን ስናገላብጥ፣ ሰዎች ከሆነ ጉዳይ ተነስተው በየበታችነት ኮምሌክስ ይሰቃዩና ከዚያ ኮምፕለክሳቸው ሊፈወሱ የሚችሉት ስልጣንና ዝናን በግዙፉ አግኝተው በሌሎች ላይ የመግዛትና የማዘዝ ሃያልነትን ሲያገኙ ካለባቸው ኮምፕሌክስ እንደሚፈወሱ ስለሚመስላቸው ወደ ስልጣን ይንጠራራሉ የሚለው indvidual Psychologie ልክ በልዩ ትእዛዝ እንደሚያሰፉት ሙሉ ልብስ፣ ለአንተ ብቻ የተሰራ በሚመስለውን መልኩ A.Adler አስቀምጦልናልና ማንነትህን ለመገንዘብ ይተባበረን ዘንዳ እንማለድን!? ጠላትን በመቀማትማ የሚችለን የለም፣ Even ግብፅንም የኢትዮጵያ „ተቃዋሚዎች“ (የግብፅ ተላላኪዎች በተባሉ እንዴት „ባማረባቸው“) „አርበኞች“ ወዘ ESATቶች ለምሳ ያዘጋጅዋትን፣ ፈጠን ብለን ለቁርስ አደረግናት አይደል፣ (ብቻ አደራችሁን ደግሞ፣ ሰው አጥቶ ነው እንዴ መንግስቱንም እየጠቀሰ ያለው አትበሉኝና!) የኢትዮጵያ ጥቅም ይጠበቅ አይጠበቅ ግን ምን ከረደሽ፣ ዋናው ነገር „ምርጫውን“ ማሸነፋችን ነውና! ወይኔ ጉዴ ይሄ the Ethiopian „developmental“ fake politics ነገር፣ የዚህ ሁሉ ከህዝብ እየተደበቁ መፈራረም ምን ይሉታል! please እዚህ ላይ በጣሙን ከፍ ያለ Ha..Ha..Ha.. በዛሬው ቀን Ha..Ha.. ያልተባለ ታድያ መች ሊባል ለመሆኑ!? And that ተኮላ from DC is becoming now like that ስዩም መስፍን of the Hage ላይ ኢትዮጵያን ሸጦ ሲያበቃ፣ ከመ ቅስፈት ደግሞ ወደ አዲስ በርሮ በመድረስ፣ የኢትዮጵያን ህዝብ፣ ተደሰቱ አሸንፈናል ፈንጠዚያ ነው ብዬ በእንቅርት ላይ ጆሮ ደግፍ ሆንኩበት አይነት ነገር!!!!!! አይ ኢትዮጵያ፣ ያ አረብ ገልሃል ተብሎ አዲስ አበባ ተክለሃይማት አደባባይ ላይ የተሰቀለው በረንዳ አዳሪ ኢትዮጵያዊው፣ ”ኢትዮጵያ፣ ጥቁር ውሻ ውለጅ፣ አረብም ይግዛሽ ” ብሎ በመጨረሻ ቃሉ የተወልሽ ርግማን እየደረሰብሽ ነውን!? ይቅርታ ወንድም እህቶች፣ ይሄ ሁሉ ከላይ ወደ ታች ከግራ ወደ ቀኝ መናጠሬ የሚያዝ የሚጨበጠውን በማጣቴ ነው፣ እስኪ ምናልባት ደግሞ ይሳካልኝ እንደሆነ አላውቅም እንጂ የዘንድሮውን የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ cabaret በማያያዝና በተራ ውርደ አረፍተ ነገር ዜቤ ደግሞ ልሞካክረውና ታግሳችሁ ልትገነዘቡኝ ሞክሩ!

    የፉክክር ቤት ሳይዘጋ ያድራል፣ ጅብም ይገባበታል ነውና፣ እንግዲህ የኢትዮጵያ ጠላቶች ሆይ በእኛ ህመም እናንተ በየጊዜው ተደሰቱ! ለምን ቢባል፣ የማንረባ ከሆንን ሰንበት ብለናላ!

    ደሳለኝ አዋሳን አስለቅሶ ጠቅላይ ሚኒስተር ከሆነ፣ እኔ ታድያ DCን እምባ በእምባ ማድረግ አቃተኝ እንዴ! ብቻ ችግሩ ከአሁን በፊት ሞክሬው በነበረበት ጊዜ በስነ ስርአቱ መታዘዝን ስላልቻልኩበትና እዩኝ እዩኝን ስላበዛሁኝ የአራት ኪሎን ቤተ መንግስት መልቀቅ ጉዳይ በድጋሚ ደግሞ እንዳይመጣ አሁንስ መታዘዝን እችልበታለሁኝን! ብሎ ያለ አይመስላችሁም ተኮላችን!

    ነገሩ ከምንሊክ እስከ ወዲ አስረስ ብቻ መስሎን ነበር፣ ግን ከዚያም አልፎ ኢትዮጵያን የመክዳት ጉዳችን እየቀጠለ ነው ለካስ! ምንሊክ ኤርትራን፣ መለስ ደግሞ ባድመን አስታኮ ጠቅላላ የኢትዮጵያ ድንበሮችን፣ እንዲሁም አሁን ደግሞ የኢትዮጵያን አፈርና ውሃዋን! ክህደት በክህደት አድርጎ ሲያበቃ ደግሞ የፓትርዮት ዘር ነኝ ብሎ ሃይለ ቃል መወርወር! ኢትዮጵያ ሆይ ድምበርሽንና ሃብትሽን አስመልክቶ ቀናእያን ተዎድሮሰ፣ ዮሃንስ፣ አሉላንና እንዲሁም ዘ-ቆልዓ ሽረን ብቻ ያምጣልሽ እንጂ ሌላ ምን ይባላል!

    ደደቢታዊው ቀምተህ ታጠቅ ባህልና የኢትዮጵያውን የስልጣን ጥመኛ ባንዳዎች ወደ አሜሪካ ሽሽት እያስከተለው ሆኖ የሚገኘው ያለው ጣጣ ኢትያጵያን ከኢትዮጵያውያን እየተደበቁ ለኢትዮጵያ ጠላቶች መቸርቸር ካሕዳምነት እየቀጠለ ይገኛል!

    ተኮላም አለም አቀፍ ህግ የሚለውን ስታነብ በጎኑ ደግሞ ጠቅላላውን Tiefenpsychologieንና በተለይም የAlfred Adlerን indvidual Psychlogieን ማንበብ ይልመድብህ! ፅሑፍህን አነበብኩና፣ ወይኔ አሁንስ ከየት ነው እርዳታ የማገኘው ብዬ ካውጠነጠንኩኝ በኋላ ፣ ትዝ ሲለኝ ለካስ Unbewust, bewust, complex, Macht und Einfluß የሚብስሉትና የሰው ልጅን ከኋላው ሆነ ለተግባራቱ ሁሉ የሚገፉትን አድለር ከፍሮይድ ጋራ ከተጣላ በኋላ የራሱ ብሎ ያሳደገው ትዎሪ እንዳለ ትዝ ብሎኝ፣ ሌሊቱን ትንሽ የአድለር መስመሮችን አነበብኩኝና፣ ምንም እንኳን ለአባይ ችግራችን መፍትሄ ባላገኝም ግን ለአንዳንድ ሰዎቻችን የመንቀሳቀሻ መነሾዎችን ግፊቶችን ማብራርያ ስለአገኘሁኝ በሰላም ተኝቸ አደርኩኝ! ተግባርህን ሳይና የአድለርን (Indivual Theorie) ሳነብ፣ ከላይ እንዳወሳሁት ቲዎሪው ለአንድ ግለሰብ ላንተ ብቻ ያሳደገው ቲዎሪ ሆኖ ተሰማኝ! ግን ሌሎች ብዙ እንደ አንተ አይነቶችም ስላሉን፣ አይዞኝ ብቸኝነት አይሰማህ!

    እንግዲህ አሁን ገና መልስ ያላገኘው ዋናው ነጥብ፣ ግንቦትም እየተቃረበ እንደመሆኑና the fake ምርጫም ተካሂዶ ማለፉ ስለማይቀር፣ ከዚያን በኋላ who is going to be the next PM of Woyane in the name of Ethiopia ነው! እንግዴህ ……….! ግን አደራ ምናልባት እቅዱ ከተሳካ፣ ግብዝነት በከመ ቅፅበት ከአራት ኪሎ እንደሚያባርር ከልምድም ጋራ ጭምር መገንዘብ ያስፈልጋል! እንደነ ደሳለኝ አይነት አቤት ወድየትነት ጠባያት ብቻ አራት ኪሎ ውስጥ አሳድሮ እንደሚያሰነብት ጠንቀቅ ብሎ መገንዘብ ያሻል!

    ትዝ እስከሚለን ድረስ፣ ያ ስዩም መስፍን የሚባል የወዲ ዜናዊ ወጥ ማማሰያ፣ ከኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ተደብቆና በባድመ አስታኮ የኢትዮጵያን ግዛትነትን አስመልክቶ፣ ጌታው አልጀርስ ላይ ያጨማለቀውን እንደገና ወደ ዴንሃግ(ዘ ሄግ) ሄዶ በድጋሚ ሲያጨማልቀው የኢትዮጵያን ጥቅሞች አሟጥጦ ለኤርትራ ፈርሞ ሲያበቃ፣ ወደ አዲስ አበባ ይመለስና፣ ጭራሹን የአይን አውጣነቱ ሲጨምርበት፣ „የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ሆይ አሸንፈናልና መንገድ ላይ ወጥተህ የደስታ ፈንጠዝያህን አሳይ“ ይላል!

    የአሁኑን ውልንስ አስመልክቶ ተመሳሳይ ትእዛዝ ገና ይመጣልን ይሆንን! አዝማምያው ወደዚያ ነው የሚመስለው! ደግሞ የማሌሊት ካድሬዎች በኢትዮጵያ ክስራን ከበሮ ሲደስቁ ሊያድሩ! አይ ጉድሽ ፅዮን ሆይ፣ ለእንደኔ አይነቱ ደግሞ፣ ላም እሳት ወለደች እንዳትተወው ልጇ ሆነባት፣ እንዳታቅፈው አቃጠላት፣ ሆነበታ!

    ያለው ስር መሰረታዊው ችግር ግን፣ ለምንድነው ስለ ኢትዮጵያ የሆነ ነገር ሲወሰን የኢትዮጵያ መሪዎች ከኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ የሚደበቁት ነው!

    ለሁሉም ነገር ምንም እንኻን መፍትሄ ባይገኝለትም ፣ ግን እድሜ ለፈረንጅ ማብራርያ ይገኝለታል! ከኢትዮጵያውያን እንኳን እንኳንስ መፍትሄ ይቅርና ማብራርያም የለ! ለነገሩማ ምድረ አበሻ እኮ ወደ አሜሪካን ባብዛኛው በውድም ሆነ በግዴታ የተሻገረው፣ የሮሃ ላሊበላ የግእዝ ፊደልንም እንኳን ሳይቆጥር በራሱ ቋንቋ ሌላው ላይ የሚለድፈውን ስድብ፣ በተስተካከለ እንግሊዘኛ ለመለደፍ የተሰደደ ይመስላል፣ በስመ አብ! ከዚህ ህብረተሰባችን ታድያ ምን መፍትሄ ሆነ ማብራርያ ሊገኝ!

    መለስ ዜናዊ እንካን ለክህደት ተግባራቶቹ ምናልባት ምክኒያት ሳይኖረው አልቀረም! Who knows ምን ያህል ዘመዶቹ ያኔ እጅና እግራቸውን እንደተቆረጠና ከዚያም ተነስቶ ምን ያህልስ ትራውማታ እንዳደረበትና፣ በምን ያህል ግፊቱ ተደበቅ ተደበቅ ያሰኘው እንደነበረ! አፄ ምንሊክም እንካንስ ከኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ይቅርና ከሸዋም መኳንንቶች ተደብቀው ነው ለጣልያን ኤርትራን የፈረሙለት! መለስ ከነበረበት ትራውማታ ተነስቶ ሊሆን ይችላል ኢትዮጵያን ሲቸረችርና ሲቆርስ ስላበዛው ፅዮን ራስዋ መፍትሄ ፈልጋ ብትፈልግ ያው ወደሚሄድበት ሄደ! አሁን ደግሞ ሌሎቹ ራሳቸውን ከወደኋላ ደበቅ አድርገውና ግን የስልጣን ጥመኞችንና እዮኝ እዩኝ ባዮችን ወደፊት እያስቀደሙ ሌሎች ክህደቶችን በኢትዮጵያ ላይ እያስፈፀሙብን ያሉት! የተላላኪዎቹን መንፈስ ጉዳይ ለመገንዘብ ነገሩ ይሄን ያህልም አያነጋግርም! Please everybody read only two lines of Alfred Adlers about Indvidual Tiefenpsychologie! ተራፒ ሊሰጣቸው ይችላል ወይ ስለሚለው ጉዳይ፣ ቴራፖይት ከተገኘ በፍጥነት ቢሰጣቸው፣ ምናልባት ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ኖርማሊቲ ይሰፍን ዘንዳ ይጠቅማል ከማለት በስተቀር ምን ሌላ ይጨመርበታል!

    በስር መሰረቱ የኢሳያስ ገሃነመ እሳታዊ ፍልስፍና ለወያነ ከለገሰው ጣጣ እየተከተለ ያለ ጉድ ነው! ኢሳያስ በመጀመርያዎቹ ስዓታት ላይ ለወያነ ምክር ሲሰጥ፣ “የተማረንና ህሊና ያለውን አጥፉ፣ ካላጠፋችሁት በኋላ ዴሚክራሲ ምንትሴ እያለ ያስቸግራችኋል” ብሎ ባላቸው ላይ፣ ቆየት ብለውም ከደርግ ወታደር ቀምተህ መሳርያህን ታጠቅ የሚለውን ራሳቸው ይጨምሩበትና፣ አንድን ቃል የተነፈሰን ሁሉ በሆነውና ባልሆነው መንገድ እያስወገዱና ደርግንም በገዛ ጠበንጃውን እየቀሙ ወደ አዲስ አበባና ከዚያም አልፎ እስከ ህንድ ውቃያኖስ ሁሉ ደረሱ! ሰጥ ለጥ ለማለት ዝግጁ ያልሆነውን የአራዳን ልጅን ሁሉን ወደ ውጭው አለም በተለይም ወደ አሜሪካ አባረሩ! አብዛኛው የተባረረው ደግሞ የስልጣን ጥም ስላለበትና እነሱንም ስለሚጠላ ለኢትዮጵያ ጠላቶች ሁሉ ተላላኪ መሆን ጀመረ! ተግባሬስ ኢትዮጵያን ይጠቅማታል ወይንስ ይጎዳታል የሚለውን ጥያቄ ጭራሹን መነሳት ተተወና፣ ብቻ ለስልጣን ያድርሰኝ እንጂ የኢትዮጵያ ጉዳይ ጉዳዬም አይደለም ብሎ በኤርትራ በኩል ለግብፅ ተላላኪ መኮን ተጀመረ! በዚህ መልኩ የግብፅ ተላላኪ ጀብሃና ሻዕብያ ብቻ ሳይሆኑ ስለ ኢትዮጵያ የሚያወራው ጠቅላላውን የስልጣን ጥመኛ ሁሉ ሆነ! ወያኔም ቀምተህ ታጠቅ በሚለው ልምዷ መሰረት እነዚህን ሁሉ ያላቸውን ነገር ሁሉ ለመቀማት ስትል ይሄው ግብፅንም ሳይቀር በጅምላ ለመቀማት ተንቀሳቀሰች፣ ድምፅዋንም ለግብፅ ስታሰማ እኔው ራሴ እላላክሃለሁኝ እንደማለት አይነት ነገር ለማለት ነው መሰለን ይሄው ከኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ እየተደበቀች የግብፅን ፍላጎት በሟሟላት ላይ ትገኛለች! ተኮላም ባራኪው ቄሳችሁ እኔ ነኝ ብሎን አረፈው!

    ተደብቀው እየተውሸለሸሉ ለዚህ ከህዝብ ተደብቀህ የሚደረግ ተግባራት justification አቀናባባሪዎች ሆኖ ደግሞም መገኘት! ግን እኮ አንዴ በእንደዚህ አይነት ተግባር ላይ ተገኝተው ሲያበቁ የመባረር እጣም ደርስዋቸው ነበር! Fool me once እና fool me twice ፍቻቸው እንዴት ነው!

    ሁለት ልንጋፈጣቸው የሚገቡን፣ ካልተጋፈጥናቸው ግን ኢትዮጵያንና ኤርትራን ካላጠፉ በስተቀር የማይፈወሱ ትራውማታዎች!

    1. የአያቶቻቸው እግርና እጅ መቆረጥን ቂም በቀል ሊወጡት ያልቻሉ በግማሽነታቸውም ሆነ በሙሉነታቸው ደቂ ማዕዶ ማይ ወገኖቻችን በችግር ላይ ናቸው! አንኮበሮች ቁራጩ የት እንደተቀበረ ታውቁ እንደሆነ ቆፍራችሁ ብትሰጥዋቸውና ምናልባት ይዘው ከሄዱ እኛም እንገላገላቸው ይሆናልና፣ Please the አንኮበሮች do your best!
    2. ባልተገረዘው ምላስ ጣጣ የኢሳያስ ከወደ ወዲ ወርቂ ማህፀንነት ወደ ዓጋመነት መውረድ አፈ ጎድፍ! ከወደታች ከመገረዝ ይልቅ በተወለዳችሁ በ40 ወ80 ቀናችሁ የምላሳችሁን 2/3ኛውን አንስተውላችሁ ቢሆን ኖሮ አሁን ከየቤታችሁ እየተጎተታችሁ ቀበሮ እንዳዩ ፍየሎች በጠቅላላይቱ ምድር ባልተበተናችሁ! የሆነ መፍትሄ አለን!?

    እኛ ተጋሩም ብንሆን ለወደፊቱም ትራውማታ ባደረባቸው ሰዎች ቂም በቀልተኝነት መወጫ ለመሆን ስለማንፈልግ እባካችሁን በ እኛ ስም የሆነ ዓይነት ግፍ እንዳይካሄድ አጨብጫቢዎችና ነፋስ በነፈሰበት ተሽከርካሪ ተጋሩም ብትሆኑ፣ start to think critically. ማጨብጨብ ብቻውን ዋጋ የለውም!

    የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ፈቃድ ከሆነ፣ ጠቅላላ ኢትዮጵያንም የአዲስ አበባን ዋና ከተማነቱን እንደያዘ ኢትዮጵያን ለኤርትራም ልትሰጥዋት ትችላላችሁ፣ ግን ከመሰጠቱ በፊት እንደ መንግስት ሆናችሁ ከህዝብ ጋራ መወያየቱን ይልመድባችሁ! ይሄንን ምርጫ የምትሉትን ነገር ደግሞ ወይ አንደኛውኑ እንደሚሆን ቢሆንሳ ምን ትሉኛላችሁ! አፈራችንንና ውሃችንን አስመልክቶ ግን ምን ጊዜም እኛ ምንጩ ላይ እስከተቀመጥን ጊዜ ድረስ ሁሌም እንደ አዲስ ጉዳዩን ስለምናነሳው፣ ጉቦ ሰጪዎች ለዘላለም የገዛችሁ መስልዋችሁ፣ በኩፍኛ ዘንጥላችሁ እንዳትሰጡ ምክሬን ልለግስ እወድውለሁኝ! የአባይ ባለንብረቶች እኛ ነን፣ በሌሎች ላይ አንዳችም ክፋት ማሰብ አያስፈልገንም፣ ግን ክፋት ከሚያስቡብን ሃገራችንን ለመከላከል በኩፍኛ በቆልዓ ሽረ የሚመራ ወታደራዊ ሃይል ማዳበር ሊኖርብን ነው! እኔ እንዃን ለነገሩ ወደ ፓሲፊዝም የምያደላኝ እንዲህ ያልኩኝ ሚሊታሪስቶቹ ደግሞ በጣሙን ከእኔ በባሰ ስለ ወታደራዊ ትጥቅ ምን እንደሚሉ ጠላቶቻችን ገምቱና፣ ይልቁንስ ከእኛ ጋራ በሰላም መኖርን ምረጡ!!

    ኢትዮጵያውያን ነን እየተባለ ኢትዮጵያን ወደ ገሃነመ እሳት “ነፃ” ለማውጣት በየአስመራውና በየካይሮም ለምትውሸለሸሉ የስልጣን ጥመኞች ሁሉ ሞት! ደግሞም ምንም እንደማይሳካላችሁ እናንተም ታውቁታላችሁ!

    Please, all “declarations” must be translated into Ethiopian languages.

    ሳይንሳዊ ጉዳዮችን አስመልክቸ ስለ አድለር ለመናገር ሙከራዬ በእንግሊዘኛም ሆነ በአማርኛ ምን አይነት መንተባተብ እንደደረሰብኝ ታዝባችኋል! እና ለወደፊቱ ሰፋ ያለ ቃላት (Begriffe) ባላቸው ጀርመኛ ወይንም ትግርኛ መጠቀሙ እንደ መፍትሄ ይሆንልኝ ይመስላችኋልን! Ha..Ha…Ha !!

  4. Gelaye
    | #4

    I found Fekade’s piece not too far from Tekola by trying to convince us that we should give TPLF the benefit of the doubt. He is jumping here and there and doesn’t really know whether he is coming or going. First he says to us don’t jump to conclusion by pointing the declaration is damaging to Ethiopia’s interest, and then he him self try to pose as very much concerned in some of the content of the agreement. The truth of the matter is:
    TPLF’s track record tells us that they could never be trusted to negotiate on behalf of Ethiopians and upholding their interest as they are responsible for leaving us land locked, secret deals with Egypt on Abay, giving away our land to Sudan and selling out at Algier’s agreement.
    By signing these agreement without consultation with Ethiopian people and advancing their short sighted political and power interest they have made unnecessary concessions such as agreeing to use the dam only for hydro electric power. Although the agreement is just a deceleration of principles on a single dam and not a treaty that binds us legally, such concessions are a victory for Egypt who still not abandoned her 1929, 1959 ‘historical rights’ of the majority of the share of Abay. What this precedence gives them is what they always seek as a guarantee from us not to reduce their ‘share’ by using it for irrigation or any other purpose, which may come back and haunt us in future as well. They would even be happy as the dam in such agreement would not only secure the continuous flow, but also reduces evaporation loss and controls flooding for them.
    It is clear that Fekade while he has no expertise on this field were quick to criticise those who cautioned whether Ethiopia gained from such exclusive deal that lacks transparency and the technical details of it still a secret from the very people who should be at the centre of it.

  5. Dawi
    | #5 said on the other thread:

    [[..ኣይተ ግሩም፣ ምናልባት ለወደፊቱ መልእክት ለእኔ ካለህ፣ ጉዳዩን አጠር መጠን ማድረግን ማስተዋል ያስፈልጋል፣ አንድ ሺህ ጊዜ በሚደጋገሙ ዝባዝንኬዎች ጋራ ለመጋፈጥ ጊዜ የለኝም!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..]]

    You are doing the same thing you accused ግሩም of and expecting a different result? Ha! Ha! Ha!..

    Einstein calls such behavior Insanity!! I expect Tecola to forgive/defend your “reason of insanity” plea in this forum. :-)

    Prof. Tecola’s comment on the agreement is on the money and isn’t contradictory to his past views. So I don’t know what you’re talking about.

    You should listen to Dr. Tedros Adhanom of Foreign Affairs on the subject. Ethiopia’s principled stand didn’t change; the difference is Egypt got the message and came to the table; we can move on. There are no permanent enemies as in your world view.

    [[..ወያኔም ቀምተህ ታጠቅ በሚለው ልምዷ መሰረት እነዚህን ሁሉ ያላቸውን ነገር ሁሉ ለመቀማት ስትል ይሄው ግብፅንም ሳይቀር በጅምላ ለመቀማት ተንቀሳቀሰች፣..]]

    Good for her! That is the art of diplomacy! If you have the inner strength that is! however, it won’t work if you don’t have an organized core because the enemy have the upper hand to make you end up like Libya.

  6. Girmachew Aterssaw
    | #6

    Fekade Shewakena, Thank you very much for your matured,balanced and relevant Message. You informed us what we say and note say, Information is power to save us or destroy us, The trust you mentioned is basic but my major concern is the rotten MOFA (Minister of Foreign Affairs his advisor) and a big issue .We need to open our eyes,ears and be vigilant .
    I appreciate your work. God bless

    | #7

    “bewust”ከሚለው ጋራ በማያያይ አንድ “s” ለጎደለባቸው ተያያዥ ቃላቶች ሁሉ “bewusst” በሚለው እንዲስተካከል ሳሳስብ ከሰምታ ጋራም ነው!!

  8. Daniel
    | #8

    I think that ato Fekade Shewakena has forgptten or overseen the track record of the TPLF as a fascist and anti-Ethiopia front. It is clear in the declaration of principles that Egypt in particular has secured its interests on the Nile at the expense of Ethiopia. I remember ato Fekade promised to take research leave and conduct studies and contribute to the grand TPLF scam (Dam). I advise ato Fekade to get out of his illusion and reread the declaration of principles instead of wishing something good from the TPLF. To expect the ethnic front the TPLF to defend and promote our national interests is like expecting a dove from the egg of a snake. The pro-TPLF scholars such as Drs. Tekola Hagos,Gelawdewos Araia and Teshome Abebe can not be expected to be credible in this and other issues of national interest. The pro-Ethiopian scholars such as Drs. Aklog Birara and Getachew Begashaw have integrity,credibility and have revealed that the ethnical fascist TPLF has once more given away and harming the national interests of Ethiopia.

  9. Girmachew Aterssaw
    | #9

    Fekade Shwakena,
    Thank you very much for the well written paper. It was an objective well balanced and mature. It is quite that we are hurt so much and need to respond on certain issues however ,we need to moderate our writing.
    Finally appreciate your commitment and dedication. God Bless.

  10. USA-Backed TPLF
    | #10

    One thing many of you seem to forget, TPLF does as it is ordered by its US masters.
    That is true concerning landlocking Ethiopia, introducing tribalism, landgrab, genocides against Amaras, Ogadenis, Gambellans and others, suppression of the opposition, and of course this issue about the Nile.
    We better always remind this USA role in the interest of the truth and informing the audience correctly.

    In this respect we should remind one thing: so many Ethiopians (Diaspora Ethiopians, Opposition in Ethiopia, ESAT, G7, etc) are bribed by Ethiopia’s foreign enemies like Eritrea, Egypt, Arabs, USA and the West.

  11. Dawi
    | #11 said:

    [[.. ነገሩ ከምንሊክ እስከ ወዲ አስረስ ብቻ መስሎን ነበር፣ ግን ከዚያም አልፎ ኢትዮጵያን የመክዳት ጉዳችን እየቀጠለ ነው ለካስ! ምንሊክ ኤርትራን፣ መለስ ደግሞ ባድመን አስታኮ ጠቅላላ የኢትዮጵያ ድንበሮችን፣ እንዲሁም አሁን ደግሞ የኢትዮጵያን አፈርና ውሃዋን! ክህደት በክህደት አድርጎ ሲያበቃ ደግሞ የፓትርዮት ዘር ነኝ ብሎ ሃይለ ቃል መወርወር! ..]]

    Considering the might of the colonialists in the 19th century, Menelik in the Treaty of Wechale signed Eritrea to Italy in exchange for recognition of Ethiopian sovereignty. That bought time for Menelik and prepare for what was going to come. The Italians invaded north part of Tigray leading to the Battle of Adwa. With Menelik’s leadership, in March 1896, the Italian army was defeated, which was one of the proudest moments in the Ethiopian history.

    Meles considered the main enemy to be “poverty”; IMO, all his concessions were made to disarm & kill what he calls the “guards of Poverty”; Derg, Shaebia, Egyptian chauvinists and the rest. Past governments tried to keep Eritrea by force and failed; doing the same thing again would have been insane! thus he signed it off.

    The fact is, no one can kill all these “guards” in one punch therefore, embarking in building the “developmental state” and rallying folks in the motto of Ethiopian renaissance as encapsulated in the GERD is/was necessary for him.

  12. USA-Backed TPLF
    | #12

    Hmmm…, the attempt to rationalize the crimes of the worst traitor thugs and Bandas in history, the tall Meles and his TPLF, by the cadre above sounds very childish and ignorant. I really wonder why TPLF wastes Ethiopian taxpayers’ money to pay imbecile cadres like that guy. Have all above 4th grade tigres left Ethiopia ?

    | #13

    ምድረ ክሃድያን, ሁላችሁም በተባበረ ክንዳችሁ ኢትዮጵያን ለመጉዳትና ማሌሊትም የሰሞኑን አርእስት divert ለማድረግ ተሳክቶላችኋል! መች ነበር ለመሆኑ “ምርጫው”?

  14. Dawi
    | #14

    USA said:

    [[..Hmmm…, the attempt to rationalize the crimes of the worst traitor thugs and Bandas in history..,,Have all above 4th grade tigres left Ethiopia ?..]]

    I don’t get it; are you concurring then with ( የመክዳት ጉዳችን ) of Menelik then?

    Otherwise what is the difference between the two leaders signing off Eritrea ( add Djibouti in Menelik’s case) to foreign or local thugs for perseverance?

    BTW, Italian colonizers army were mostly 4th graders if you didn’t know.
    Most Ethiopian patriots didn’t even have formal education.

  15. aha!
    | #15

    Yidres le Ato Fekade Shewakena! I am responding to your editorial comment, not as breath of fresh air like Dawi did @#2, as non committal to either Ethiopians Nationalism or ethnic federalism and secessionism’s perspective, trying to portray the different view points by different sources. How you came to that form of classification, does fall into either of the above ideologies and/or perspectives from the standpoint of the political models crystalized after the 2005 election. That said, you want us to look at the “Declaration of Principles” about the Blue Nile, outside the ideological and modular perspectives of the alignments of parties in the current regime and those in the opposition parties by stating “We Ethiopians need to evaluate and discuss this agreement and subsequent technical agreements outside of our political views”. However, when the agreements debated about has to do with the national interest of Ethiopia, Declaration of Principles of Principles need to be approached from the ideological perspectives and that ideological perspective is Ethiopian Nationalism with parties aligned along national agenda rather than ethnic agenda with independent branches of government.
    I agree the technical aspect could introspected/studied by scientists and engineers.

    You may have to understand the opposition to GERD originates from the ideological perspectives, of Ethiopian Nationalism of Ethiopia as one nation not multi national States, with national agenda for unity, territorial integrity, sovereignty of Ethiopia and Ethiopians, where the last item refers to individual freedom, liberty and equality before the law, do not have precedence over ethnic and secessionist rights, under the TPLF/eprdf regime with system of Political Ethnicity according to Berhanu Abegaz and ethnic federalism as a prelude to ethnic secessionism, future boundary conflicts and ethnic cleansing of ideologies built into the constitution supported by crony capitalism of TPLF/Political, TPLF/EFFORT and TPLF affiliated enterprises having a monopolistic stake in the construction of the dam. The condition for truly democratic government with individual rights, independent branches of government are non-existent, human rights crises, economic political and environmental crises are prevalent, which puts into question the type of DoP agreement to cater to the national interest of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. I believe the question of national interest should be left to the technocrats, particularly after the 6000 MW hydro electric dam is underway, albeit strapped for capital, in an area, where the dam is exposed to high evaporative demand of the atmosphere with no irrigable lands, I suspect, draining the economy on the backs of businesses and individuals to finance the Dam.

    I was was in support of your previous ideas in contention of GERD, where you suggested the development of the 22+ tributaries amenable to irrigated farming and hydro electric generation, perhaps in distributed fashion, which could also easily financed by IMF, etc. as part of the infrastructural development, together with revitalizing the watershed basins to retain water, contain runoffs of soil and water unabated into the Blue Nile to raise productivity in the highlands of densely
    populated, while DoP agreements is hammered out by the down stream and upper stream riparian countries to begin with. Both the conservation and GERD are not being approached from the ideological perspectives of Ethiopian Nationalism, while the perspective of conservation of our national not en into consideration along with GERD.

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