Is the TPLF Unintentionally Preparing the Ground for a Military Takeover? Messay Kebede

May 30th, 2015 Print Print Email Email

Readers may remember that I was recently involved in a dispute with Tecola Hagos over his article unjustly criticizing the conference on the Horn of Africa, organized by ESAT (see In addition to criticizing his assessment of the conference, my article disapproved his call for a military dictatorship. At the same time, I recognized the rationale that led Tecola to make such a baffling proposal. I noted that he had lost all hope in the possibility of the TPLF reforming itself, even as the necessity of reforms springs to mind in the face of mounting problems and challenges. Meles’s ways of dealing with the problems of Ethiopia have become irrelevant, since they have only aggravated the problems instead of solving them. Tecola’s call for a military coup is, therefore, the only viable solution once the necessity of reforms and the reluctance of the civilian leadership to make reforms are acknowledged. Needless to say, it is the only solution if and only if the goal is to keep power in the hands of a Tigrean military elite.

The more I reflected on Tecola’s rationale, the more it became clear that all what the TPLF leadership is doing is just an invitation for a military takeover. Not that the civil leadership of the ruling party expressly wants such an outcome, but because the retention of its hegemony demands that its methods of government as well as its thinking increasingly take the form of a military rule. The trouble, however, is that the civilian leadership cannot continue using military methods without having absolute control over the military. Absolute power cannot tolerate the existence of an autonomous force without ceasing to be absolute.

This is exactly what Rene Lefort, a long-time student of Ethiopia and one of the few scholars who have a first-hand knowledge of the country, notes with particular acuity when he speaks of “the growing autonomy of the army and security services. They have become a state within the state, answerable only to themselves and linked with just a few lead figures in the TPLF. The army in particular has built a military-industrial empire.” He adds, “for the first time, politics has by and large lost control of the gun.” (René Lefort, Ethiopia: a leadership in disarray, Open Democracy).

There is no doubt that a military-like regime is best effected by professional military men rather than by civilians, who can only be amateurs at the job. More importantly, I do not see how a military takeover can be avoided, given the fact that the regime cannot have two different and competing centers of power. The one must accept subordination, and it is hard to imagine how civilians would prevail in the present context of Ethiopia.

Here transpires the difference of TPFL’s notion of the development state from its classical meaning. The classical form, as exemplified by some East Asian countries, shows first well-established military regimes historically assuming a developmental role to counter the threat of communist insurgency through rapid economic development. The case of Ethiopia took a reverse direction, as a civilian party to which the military was subordinated first established a government that progressively evolved into a regime of a military type. True, one can point out a resemblance with the Chinese case, except that the Chinese government never lost the control of its military. This is enough to cast doubt on the feasibility of the developmental state in Ethiopia.

One way by which the civilian leadership can prevent a military takeover is by democratizing the political system. In particular, the participation of opposition parties in the decision making process would diminish the importance of repressive forces and would give the state a form little appealing to military authoritarianism. But, as amply demonstrated by last week election’s, the TPLF is absolutely determined to exclude opposition forces from all participation. What the civilian leadership misses is that the exclusion of the opposition makes it even more dependent on repressive forces, which forces will not be long in realizing that they are the real power.

Let us go further. The ideology of the regime itself, namely, the developmental state, calls for a military type of power structure. Indeed, the ideology does no more than legitimize the idea of an authoritarian state. On the one hand, the ideology clearly requires the postponement of democracy as a necessary condition for economic growth, a position that is music to the ears of the military. On the other, the crucial economic role assigned to the state, not only legitimizes the economic empire controlled by the Ethiopian military, but it also grants them the experience, expertise, in a word, the entitlement to run such a state. Stated otherwise, be it repression or economic guidance and implementation, the military would be much better than the civilian leadership, which on top of being amateurish, is constantly involved in internal disputes and struggles for power that endanger the whole system. The Ethiopian military thus emerges as the sole savior of the system.

The irony here is that, as the TPLF and the EPRDF celebrate their complete “victory” over the opposition, this same victory is also how they create conditions for the surrender of power to the military. In “crushing” the opposition through repression, the civilian leadership is actually furthering the militarization of the state. The weapons by which the TPLF prevails is also how it makes itself increasingly irrelevant. The option for a repressive policy can only generate more conflicts and threats of popular uprisings, the control of which gives more power and indispensability to the military and security forces.

I am not saying that a military coup is inevitable in Ethiopia: nothing is predetermined in societal evolution, given that the occurrence of a specific event requires the encounter of a host of conditions. I am just indicating a tendency, which precisely can turn into necessity if nothing is done to prevent it. In social as well in human life, doing nothing amounts to necessity for only then does the possible become inevitable.

  1. tewbel
    | #1

    Since they are all members of TPLF, let’s say citizen/soldiers who fought together as a political party where is the military you are talking about?

  2. gizaw
    | #2

    Do not worry about a military coup, mr Mesay, Tplf is a militarist organisation as it is. there is no military outside Tplf, and I am not sure who the coup will be done by.

    Tplf by inception is a militarist organisation, that was set up to seize power by the bullet. It is the militarist Tigre liberation front that seized power by the gun in 1991. It is the same militarist, fascist tplf that controls the economy, the security and spy networks and administering the kidnap, jailing and torture of activists, journalist, political opposition and the general public.

    Let me explain that the Tplf ‘tegadalay’ are the military, (that is how they like to explain themselves, ask samoura yunis). the sibhat nega, bereket simon, samoura yunis etal. samoura yunis wears a military fatigue and calls himself a ‘general’ , sebehat nega dons Armani suits and ties and he likes to be a civil, but they are the same. it is a matter of changing what you wear and you can look like a ‘general’ or something else, as far as tplf are concerned, you do not need to spend years in a military academy. that is what Tplf bandits did when they arrived in Addis abeba from Dedebit. all you need to know is how to pull a trigger.

  3. Alem
    | #3

    Excellent observation.
    I see Tecola as the canary in a coal mine.
    But let us stop making him the center
    of political discussion, making him
    the topic of discussion; it is plain distraction and venom,
    with the weaker crow Tedros [and Dawi] in tow ["philosophers of
    Tigrean origin" or "master thinker" silliness].

    The role of the US and UK is missing.
    In fact I believe Ethiopia’s ruling party,
    not unlike the Derg, at some point
    will have to publicly turn itself into
    a military junta [not just remain communist/socialist].
    Something similar to Pakistan or Egypt – if it has
    not already done in view of how elections are handled
    and how the West has remained supportive.
    The irony of an Albanian-style Front [still a front]
    promising democracy in exchange for
    implementing constitutional democracy and having
    received billions in aid openly reverting to the old
    secretive communist ways [read: "collective leadership"
    and turning East in big ways!
    Irony or ironies the hypocrisy of the US/UK
    going along and to "front" and outsource torture
    and corruption [secret business deals] with
    a state engaged in human trafficking
    [really modern day slavery].
    In other words, the US/UK are as much fearful
    of democracy as Ethiopian rulers.
    The US/UK will bless a change over to a military junta
    in order to assure a top-down structure
    is in place so a deployment to intervene
    in regional conflicts will be easier and faster
    [whereas democracy is slow and will need deliberations, etc].
    Remember Wendy Sherman’s testimony BEFORE a single ballot
    was cast?!
    Ethiopia provides a Drone base and torture chambers as well
    as supply cheap manpower/soldiers on the ground
    in South Sudan, Somalia etc. Talk of bloody money.
    In the end, the difference between Tplf/Eprdf and Al Shabab is
    that one serves the interests of US/UK, the other does not.
    The sad thing? Over 100 exiled journalists
    are engaged in worthless vocation [of fanning
    hate and serving Eritrean ambitions].
    Think about Eritrean rulers organizing
    Horn of Africa conference [in the guise
    of Esat [Eritrean Sat] and Ginbot 7
    trying to convince us Isaias has found
    a new love for his motherland Ethiopia
    and that working with Eritrea is
    a practical choice; when the time
    comes G7 leaders will push aside Eritrean
    leaders and not seek power for itself!
    Pure madness.
    Do you not sense a paralysis within
    the opposition in how to react to
    Tplf/Eprdf election robbery?
    Aren’t you surprised by Prof. Alemayehu’s
    silence about collaborating with
    Eritrea and Esat’s role in promoting it?

    Let me go ahead and say what has been eating
    me for a while.
    Ethiopians do not give a hoot if Tplf remained
    in power as long as it could provide water, housing
    and such amenities. Many in the so-called “opposition”
    are investing in our homeland. The few
    vocal and fractured groups simply do not
    have a vision other than just talk about
    opposing everything Tplf does. The same group
    upon seizing power will pursue similar if not
    worse policy.
    Talk of peaceful struggle ala MLK and Gandhi is silly.
    What is absent in both instances is the context, the
    environment for such to take place.
    Can you name a leader of similar stature among
    Ethiopian opposition? A mere hodgepodge of an article
    from Tecola rattles the daylight out of the community.
    And now think of British India of the 1940s and the US
    of the 1960s. In both the British and
    US societies there was an established structure for rule of law
    and freedom of dissent. There was also a solid moral
    consensus. Hence, a mere photo report of police dogs and fire hoses
    against blacks was enough to turn the public
    against the Administration. The same thing in India
    where “Christian” and “civilized” Britain was
    clubbing and mowing down peaceful protesters!
    How does these historical events compare with
    those in Ethiopia?
    Talk of armed struggle is even worse.
    One thing I appreciate in Dr. Messay’s
    presentation is his caution that
    “scorched earth” approach simply to
    “remove” Tplf is wrong. Not thinking
    the longterm effect of our actions
    has been the sad tale of our lives.
    The present group ruling Ethiopia
    being a prime example.
    Simply hating the Derg and
    wanting to remove it meant
    in the end what we have now.
    If only we could remember the fall
    Derg came primarily from
    a combination of its own
    rigid policies AND
    a shift in international
    power alignments!!

    So what is the solution?
    What I have been saying all along.
    Public relations. PR, PR, PR.
    Are you an economist, IT guy, journalist, etc?
    That is where the real battle ought to be joined.
    Tplf is winning in that every single time.
    We need to reach the ignorant US/UK publics by
    constantly educating with facts [not fiction and
    "activist tales." People are tired of
    hearing complaints and a litany of invective.

    We need to do our homework first.
    You will soon discover that Tplf has
    positioned itself under "Africa" "independent"
    "scholarly" outlets [to a point of embedding
    mainline media]. Google Ethiopia and what
    turns up success after success of new projects.
    Do you have time to check past “successes” and report
    they have not either been started or have already collapsed?
    Finally, focus on few significant items.
    And do not waste energy or time discussing
    everything under the sun.
    No need discussing Eritrea, breakaway Oromiya [will never happen],
    19th century Moresh stuff, scraping off Tplf indiscriminately or
    Muslim movement [to rid us of tyranny; that amounts to playing with
    There is economic racism in the country.
    Tplf is using its political power position
    to simply literally rob the treasury.
    No one can sell gold on the market;
    the banks are the only legal buyers of gold
    at the price set by Tplf. You understand the game?
    There are three major gold mining projects;
    by the Saudi Al Amoudi, by Egypt, and Ezana by Tplf.
    All licenses are issued by Tplf on its own terms, terms that
    are secret! Moreover, Tplf can start and own businesses
    in every kilil but all others can only function
    in their respective regions. You need to investigate
    who does what on outlying regions [Gambela, Gumuz, Oromiya,Afar, etc].
    People want to talk about all this.
    These travesties of justice need to
    be recorded carefully and made public.
    Our weapon ought to be TRUTH, FACTS
    NOT lies and 19th century stories
    sliced to support personal/group vendetta.

  4. Alem
    | #4

    Sorry, meant blood money NOT bloody money [though that is also close].
    G7 leaders power for themselves.

  5. Sam
    | #5

    I do not share Messay’s concern. In Ethiopia the military is not in position to set up a military regime. I know two factors convinced him that the danger of having a military takeover might be real. The first was Techola’s article which suggested the Turkish model in which a military takeover for a given time might be necessary. The second is Rene Lefort’s belief the military in Ethiopia is a state within a state, so having a military takeover is likely. But both individuals failed to take into account the composition of the military. The military generals still come from one ethnic group, while the foot soldiers represent pretty much the whole country. It is not rational to think the foot soldiers allow themselves to be used by a single ethnic generals. One could ask still those generals run the show, and the foot soldiers follow their orders. Here is the difference: the Amhara, oromo, and the southern soldiers might believer they are represented in EPDRF. If the military takeover occurs that representation– real or imagined– will no longer be there. The military generals pretty much know the political equation will change overnight if they dare to take power. They do not dare. They enjoy their a state within a state status, which I believe to be true. They are not fools. They exert an immense influence on EPDRF the way it is now, why do they take a risky move? No, they do not.

    | #6

    In that “ዓወተይ ብእብርትነተይ” strategy of MLLT, የትግራይ ህዝብ ማሌሊትን ይታዘዝ ዘንዳ እና የእውነተኛ ዴሞክራሲ ናፋቂም እንዳይሆን በትግራይ ህዝብ ላይ እንደ “የልጅ አስፈራርቶ ማስተኛ ጭራቅነት” ሚና እና እንዲሁም “ኤርትራ” የሚባለውን ድሮውም al falsso የሆነውን “ማንነት”, ውጭ-ውጩን “ዓወት ንሓፋሽ” ተብሎ እየተፎከረ, ግን በተግባር ሙሉ ለሙሉ ገድሎ ወደ መቃብር ከማድረስ በስተቀር, ሌላ ብዙም የሚጫወተው ሚናም ስለሌለው, ስለ ሻዕቢያም ሆነ ኢሳያስነቱ ማውራት, ልክ ጀብሃን እንደረሳነው, ይሄኛውንም የምንረሳበት ዕለታት እየተቃረበ ነው!!

    በተለይም የባድመን ጦርነት የጫረ ቀንና እንዲሁም አፈ-ዕረ the ዓንሰባስ ለወዲ ወርቂ ማህፀናቸው ባልተገረዘው ምላሳቸው “ዓጋመነቱን” የገለፁለት ዕለት, ከላይ ያወሳሁትን በትግራይ ህዝብ ላይ ጭራቅነትንና ኤርትራን መቅበር ትልም ተግባራት ውስጥ ከቶታል! ዓንሰባስ በኢሳያስ ላይ የሰነዘሩት አባባል ያደረሰበት TRAUMATA, ባጤፌኛነት በምንም አይነት ስድብ ሊመከት አይችልም ብሎ ስላመነበት, እንደ ባጤፈኛነት የቂም በቀል ቁጭት መወጫ, ከዒራ-ዒሮ ቀጥሎ ኤርትራውያንን ከቤታቸው ማባረርን ብቻ ሆኖ ታይቶታል!

    በጣሙን የሚያሳዝነው, የዚህ ውጤት ሶስት ሚልዮን “ኤርትራውያን” ከየቤታቸው ተፈንቅለው ከተባረሩ በኋላ ለግፈኛ ዓረቦች የሰው ልጅን ወይ በጅምላ በሙሉ ሰውነታቸው ለሚጫወቱባቸው, አለበለዚያም በኦርጋንነት በችርቻሮ ለሚሸጥዋቸውና, ምናልባት ከዚህም ካለፉ ደግሞ ለአሳ ነባሪ ቀለብ የመሆናቸው እጣ ነው! የችርቻሮው ገቢ ተካፋይ ደግሞ ኢሳያስ-ወሻዕቢያም ሆነው መገኛታቸው! ከዚህ ሁሉ የተረፉም “ኤርትራውያንም” ካሉ, የነየመን ጦርነቶች የአረቦች የጥይት እራት እየሆኑ እንደሆነ እየታዘብን ነው, ይሄኛውም ለጥይት ቀለብነት መድረሱ ጉዳይም ያው በሽያጭነት ነው! አንድ ህዝብ ከዚህ የባሰ ምን ካታስትሮፈ ሊደርስበት ይችላል? ለዚህም ነው ተሃድሶ የሚለው ቃል ከኤርትራ ጋር ተያይዞ ትርጉም የለሽ የሚሆነው!

    ሁናቴዎች ደግሞ በእንዲህ በሚገኙበት ስዓታት ላይ “ተስፋቸውን” በኢሳያስ-ሻዕቢያ ላይ የሚጥሉ ኢትዮጵያውያንም በጣሙን ያሳዝናሉ! በእግርጥም እንዚህኞችን የዘመኑ የስው ልጅነት የጎደላቸው ባንዳዎች ልንላቸው እንችላለን!

  7. dawit
    | #7


    this is what our hero Ana Gomes said about the woyane election


  8. JEMAL
    | #8

    For professor Messay Kebede
    It is time to wake up and take tangible action of every kind that can harm and topple this satanic TPLF cabal from power.We do not have time for philosophical discourse which can be postponed for other times. What most people know is the TPLF cabal physically killing Ethiopians. However, besides hard-killing mainly soft-killing is also the motto of TPLF. Soft-killing includes all sorts of de-capacitating non-Tigrean Ethiopians, especially Amharas, in every way of life. Soft-killing or de-capacitating by a deliberate design includes: malnutrition, disease, poor-education, poor health service, vaccination, promoting prostitution and family breakup, cultural perversion, moral degeneracy, inculcating ethnic conflict, dispossessing of land right, economic hegemony like EFFORT………
    TPLF is similar to the Zionist state of Israel that kills and brutalizes Palestinians for its imperial expansion in the Middle East. TPLF is the work of Zionists and the West.TPLF is the most dangerous thug for the horn of Africa and all rest of Africa. We are seeing our own soft-death doing nothing. The TPLF cabal wants and is working to gradually wipe out non-Tigrean Ethiopians by hard-killing and soft-killing. That is why it is encouraging migration. This Satanic cabal does not consider Ethiopians as its citizens but as subjects.
    Especially Amharas are considered as a threat which has to be wiped out at any cost. Those who consider themselves as Amharas or those whom TPLF considers as Amharas must organize themselves clandestinely. We must not see inactive while our race is gradually wiped out by this cabal. Other ethnic groups are so foolish that the same thing happen to them. The revenge of TPLF cabal is not limited to Amahara but shall knock every door if not stopped ASAP. Foreign powers are revenging anti-colonial Ethiopia through TPLF cabal.The majority of Tigreans already betrayed Ethiopia and complacent with TPLF for their own selfish advantage. They want the system to continue. So we can not trust them as dependable allies. Let history teach them in its own way. That is the bitter truth we have to accept about majority Tigreans. But what TPLF and their Tigrean supporters forget is this unjust system can not continue like this. And actually eventually out of the mess no one is beneficial except our foreign enemies. The arrogance and ignorance of TPLF cabals has blinded them that what they are doing is even against the long term interest of majority Tigreans. The majority of Ethiopians are very resentful against Tigreans. Well this resentment is justifiable. Denying this resentment even causes more additional resentment. Pretending there is no resentment on all sides of the parties only complicates the situation. TPLF and Tigreans must know that they are sitting complacent on a time-bomb. This Western supported minority hegemony can not continue in this way. The West also knows it also but they are just pushing it only for their own benefit to disintegrate Ethiopia out of tension. Regarding Tigrean intellectuals like Dr. Tecola Hagos he is in some sort of delusional grandiose and denial of existing realties. He just wants to show up his intellectual caliber. He thinks his mere intellectual jargon can change bitter and monumental realities. Like other TPLFites he forgets the historical background how TPLF came to power. When 11 TPLF members went to Dedebit jungle to fight Derg they had not consulted other Ethiopians. Then why must the Horn of Africa meeting must necessary consult every Tigrean elite? Tigrean elites like Tecola first have to earn the trust of other Ethiopians.It is not a matter of intellectual knowledge but a matter of trust. As far as I understand Tecola wants even needs the same TPLF to stay in power maintaining the status-quo. TPLFites think their power is eternal and unshakable which is so silly and denial of history itself. They now govern Ethiopia only because Ethiopians are so humble and docile to be governable. However Tecola Hagos and his TPLF friends seem to forget that there is time for every thing. Time for bravery, time for cowardice, time for strength, time for weakness, time to hate, time to love, time for wisdom, time for ignorance. And when time is over and enough is enough they have to have the audacity and wisdom to understand and accept this. After 24 years, boasting that there is no meaningful rival opposition and declaring 100% victory is a mockery of democracy. It is a mockery of Ethiopians consciousness especially Tigreans. It is laughable. It is laughable and disgraces Tigreans in the history of politics and governance. It shows the poor psychological makeup of Tigrean elites that swings between extremes of superiority complex and inferiority complex. Silently even the ordinary populace not only resentful of such outcomes but also laughs at the Tigrean elites. What the Tigrean elites forget is one important truth. It is not western democracy that becomes a mockery.It is not the Ethiopian peoples that becomes a mockery. And nor its cadre supporters in the name of EPRDF. It is rather the Tigrean elites who are a mockery. Because you are judged by what you do in accordance with your talk.The Tigrean elites are putting themselves on the wrong page of history.
    Starting from 1997 monumental election campaign, TPLF repeatedly says oppositions do not have alternative oppositions do not have alternative . But what TPLF wants to say indirectly is the oppositions can not get foreign aid and loan as much as like me because they are not puppets of West. I am Western puppet so money flows better under my rule. Oppositions can not become as good puppet as I am so Western governments do not support such opposition if come to power. This is what TPLF wants to tell us when talking about alternative. But who is the major beneficiary of foreign aid and loan?Mainly TPLF and Tigreans. This parasitic economic system very dependent on foreign aid and loan sucking the blood of Ethiopians must be stopped. The very objective of Western aid and loan is to support their puppet TPLF to stay in power. It is not as such to help the majority Ethiopians.
    What can avert the hubris of TPLF is only tangible action not empty talk. The Opposition like G7 and others must organize at least a low level well organized military junta that can be dependable to handle any sort of arbitrary chaos in the country. The need of organized military junta is not only to fight TPLF but at least helps as alternative force to maintain peace in the country. Otherwise, empty talk is worthless. We have seen it for years. The coming five years will be the worst of all miserable times for Ethiopians if any thing is not done to stop TPLF.TPLF is now a mad dog and it staggers to bite every Ethiopian not supporting its hegemony.

  9. USA Fears Blowback
    | #9

    Alem’s and JEMAL’s comments are the most interesting and full of information and facts. They also mention TPLF’s masters, ferenji USA and UK, the ones who pull the strings from behind and who might have thousands of non-tigrian agents working for them right now in Ethiopia. The TPLF manufactured poverty has made it for USA and UK very cheap to recruit Ethiopians to work for them against their country. There are also hundreds or thousands diaspora Ethiopians, among them intellectuals and journalists, who work for ferenjis against Ethiopia.

    As JEMAL rightly said the ferenjis want to escalate things in Ethiopia and to bring chaos, anarchy and bloodshed in the whole of Ethiopia. That is why they keep supporting TPLF. They must have catastrophic plans for Ethiopia and want to prevent the reemergence of Ethiopia, which they expect will be anti-western due to the experience of the last 24 years, at all costs.
    We have to be aware of their diabolical plans and go public with it. And that not so in ferenji lands but in the non-western world, above all in black Africa (the arabs sure support such western plan) and seek support from non-western and non-arab powers.

    Alem suggests to do PR work, yeah but such PR work in the West is useless, it should be done to win non-western and non-arab supporters, above all in Africa.

    We have to write articles with titles like: “The West plans to punish Ethiopia for its Anti-colonial past”, “Racist West aims to turn Anti-colonial Ethiopia into a single killing field”, “Racist West desperate to turn Africa into a single war zone”, “West finances and plans genocides and chaos in Ethiopia” etc.

    The PR work Alem is suggesting should not be to educate and alert the western public about western crimes in Ethiopia, it should be to attack, expose and discredit the West in the non-western world, above all in Africa.

  10. USA Fears Blowback
    | #10

    It seems USA and UK have said to themselves: “we have to finish what we have started.” That means the dismantlement of Ethiopia.

    Those ferenjis are very nasty people, just read their records.

    ” Now, let’s first define our terms. By Anglo-imperialists I mean the combination of Britain and the United States. The latter took over for the former as it failed, turning it into a protectorate. Now the latter is failing too, and there are no new up-and-coming Anglo-imperialists to take over for it. But throughout this process their common playbook had remained the same: pseudoliberal pseudocapitalism for the insiders and military domination and economic exploitation for everyone else. Much more specifically, their playbook always called for a certain strategem to be executed whenever their plans to dominate and exploit any given country finally fail. On their way out, they do what they can to compromise and weaken the entity they leave behind, by inflicting a permanently oozing and festering political wound.“Poison all the wells” is the last thing on their pre-departure checklist.

    • When the British got tossed out of their American Colonies, they did all they could, using a combination of import preferences and British “soft power,” to bolster the plantation economy of the American South, helping set it up as a sort of anti-United States, and the eventual result was the American Civil War.

    • When the British got tossed out of Ireland, they set up Belfast as a sort of anti-Ireland, with much blood shed as a result.

    • When the British got tossed out of the Middle East, they set up the State of Israel, then the US made it into its own protectorate, and it has been poisoning regional politics ever since.(Thanks to Kristina for pointing this out in the comments.)

    • When the British got tossed out of India, they set up Pakistan, as a sort of anti-India, precipitating a nasty hot war, followed by a frozen conflict over Kashmir.

    • When the US lost China to the Communists, they evacuated the Nationalists to Taiwan, and set it up as a sort of anti-China, and even gave it China’s seat at the United Nations.

    The goal is always the same: if they can’t have the run of the place, they make sure that nobody else can either, by setting up a conflict scenario that nobody there can ever hope to resolve. And so if you see Anglo-imperialists going out of their way and spending lots of money to poison the political well somewhere in the world, you can be sure that they are on their way out. Simply put, they don’t spend lots of money to set up intractable problems for themselves to solve—it’s always done for the benefit of others. ”

  11. Dawi
    | #11

    Alem said:

    [[..The few vocal and fractured groups simply do not have a vision other than just talk about opposing everything Tplf does..]]

    Let us see what the latest The Economist article on Ethiopian Economy says:

    [[..The continent’s second most populous country and fastest-growing big economy has close intellectual links with China’s Communists......the senior leadership in Ethiopia is very capable, the country lacks China’s talented mid-level administrators. ...Sensible opposition leaders are pushed into exile or prison, ceding the field to hotheads. .....Ethiopia is stuck thanks to its paranoid elite. The country will be able to limp on for a while, given its impressive growth rates....Ethiopia is missing out on becoming something far more impressive...]]

    I say it is a fair article however, the “fastest economy” is created by developmental state planning as opposed to following neo liberal policies; it is working, has worked in China and else where for decades.

    I say let us leave the “neo-liberals” worry of it getting “stuck”; for me I see it is just beginning & with the hydro coming in sync, it is going to take off.

    One thing The Economist did was give credit where credit is due that “the senior leadership in Ethiopia is very capable”! so as Alem pointed out opposing everything is a non-starter “approach”.

    Let us do Tecola instead.

  12. Cheru
    | #12

    I agree with those who quite rightly stated that TPLF is a militant organization and the so called Ethiopian military is complete subservient of this militant front. I also do not know what sense the author is trying to make. The author should have been wiser than attempting to appease the derogatory Tecola Hagos with such writing (refer to earlier post by Tecola Hagos). Professor Mesay should have known better that the plight of a country is thicker that personal friendship with Tecola Hagos, a man everyone knows to be a tribal ku klax klan apologist of the TPLF regime and one who would not spare a nation of selective genocide if given power with silver platter.

  13. GEORGE
    | #13

    @USA Fears Blowback

    The decline of USA and Christian Western civilization in general is mainly caused by the International Zionists’ sinister plot. USA spends trillions of dollars due to its destructive aggressive wars all over the world. All the aggressive wars against Iraq, Syria, Libya Yemen …. . are proxy wars mainly for the sake of international Zionists. Who mainly benefit from all theses destructive wars are not ordinary Americans but Zionists who control the military and financial sector of USA and the West in general. They aspire to establish their New World Order over the ashes of the gradual destruction of all Nation-States including USA and other powerful countries. Their motto is “order emerges out of chaos”. Intellectuals call it Hegelian dialectics. But in reality it is a Luciferian Anti-Christ world order. The army of agents of Zionists is distributed all over the world for almost the last 3000 years. Because of this world wide historical distribution this sinister force infiltrates every country and every society all over the world. This sinister force infiltrates and causes perversion and corruption of the social, cultural, economical, political, historical, religious landscape of every society and country. This sinister force stealthily infiltrates using its army of agents and bureaucrats starting from the minute grass root level of every society to the top level of the government. I think Ethiopia a history of more that 3000 years is also victim of this clandestine sinister force. From the complications of Ethiopian case I think TPLF is also agent of this sinister international cabal. As far as I understand Ethiopians are gradually disintegrating with deteriorating unifying factors as a united country. A very diabolical conspiracy has been plotted against Ethiopians.

  14. Alem
    | #14

    Dear Blowback,
    I do not share the gist of your comments. I will let you and JEMAL go it alone this time.
    As for Tecola, he is upset Hailemariam is the face of Tplf even though Hailemariam is powerless. He therefore recommends a military junta takeover to remove Hailemariam because he is NOT a military man. That opens up space for his favorites [of "Tigrean origin" to borrow from "philosopher" Tedros] Abay Tsehaye or DebreTsion. You may protest all you want the two mentioned are NOT soldiers. How about if you were to be told they were actually army colonels during Dedebit days? and that this is the first time this bit information is being made public?

  15. Abiy Ethiopiawe Segawi We-Menfesawi
    | #15

    I am 100 percent sure the so called EPRDF, which is the Gujle;Mafia made Tigre minority Ethnic group,they did not listen the Ethiopian people and they never will.To remind them again and again let me express in Amharic.Because they don’t want to learn from the past of two fallen Ethiopian governments mistakes.
    Instead they are torturing,imprisoning and killing by using man made legislation systematically.In short they decided that”tomorrow will never come for Ethiopians;only it is given for us”.

    +++++++++ የሰው-ጽዕብ ዝምቦች…አገርን አዋራጅ።++++++++++

    እናንት የሰው-ጽዕብ፣
    ማነው ያላችሁ “ንብ” ???
    ጐሓሊ፣ጉጅሌና ጥንብ!!!
    መጠሪያችሁ’ኮ ነው እንደዝንብ።
    እናንት ያራም-ውላጅ !!!…
    አይበቃችሁም ወይ፣
    አገርን አዋራጅ!!!
    ወቸገል ዜናዊ ያኔ ንብ ነን ሲለን፤
    የዝንብን ተግባሩን አሳየነው ታግለን።
    በዘጠና ሰባት እንደሕዝብ ሳያምነን፤
    ፍርድ ከሰማይ ወርዶ ሲቀጨው ቀደመን።
    ኃይሌም በትዕዛዝ፣”ንብ ነኝ” ትለናለች፤
    እንዳቅሟ ወይና ጉጅሌ መስላለች።
    የክርስቶስ አርበኛ ዕመኑኝ ነኝ ሲለን፤
    ለሥልጣኑ ጥማት ወይኖ አታለለን።
    ይህች ያራም ውላጅ፤
    አገርን አዋራጅ።
    ቆሻሻ የምትውለው፤
    በሽታ ያጀለች፤
    ከሰይጣን የዋለች።
    ዐይኗን ፍጥጥ አርጋ፤
    በእግሯ ብስብስ ጠርጋ፤
    በአፏ አሞጥሙጣ፤
    ግም ልሳ አር ገምጣ፤
    ፀአዳ ላይ አርፋ፤
    ብስብሱን ታቅፋ፤
    ንብ ነኝ ትለናለች፤
    በሽታ እንዳዘለች።
    ለማያውቁሽ በሏት ይህችን ያራም ውላጅ፤
    ዝንብ ሁሌም ዝንብ ነች አገርን አዋራጅ።
    እናም «ዝንብ» ስላለች ንብ ነኝ ፤
    ማነው ንብ የሚላት በሐቁ የማይገኝ ? ? ?
    የጉጅሌ ቁራጭ፤
    አርና ደም መጣጭ፤
    ይህች ያራም ውላጅ፤
    አገርን አዋራጅ።
    ደግሞ ንብ ነኝ አለች፤
    ዝንብን የመሰለች።
    በሽታ ይዛለች፤
    ዛሬም ያታለለች።
    የማታፍረው ወያኔ፣ንብ ነኝ ትለናለች፤
    ኃይሌም ደስ እንዳላት፣ ጉጅሌ መስለች።
    ይህች ያራም ውላጅ፤
    አገርን አዋራጅ።
    ቆሻሻ የምትውለው፤
    በሽታ ያጀለች፤
    ከሰይጣን የዋለች።
    ዐይኗን ፍጥጥ አርጋ፤
    በእግሯ ብስብስ ጠርጋ፤
    በአፏ እያራች ልሳን አሞጥሙጣ፤
    የቃላት ግም ልሳ አር ሐረጉን ገምጣ፤
    ፀአዳ ላይ አርፋ፤
    ብስብሱን ታቅፋ፤
    ንብ ነኝ ትለናለች፤
    በሽታ እንዳዘለች።
    ለማያውቁሽ በሏት ይህችን ያራም ውላጅ፤
    ዝንብ ሁሌም ዝንብ ነች አገርን አዋራጅ።
    እናም «ዝንብ» ስላለች «ንብ» ነኝ ፤
    ማነው ንብ የሚላት በሐቁ የማይገኝ ? ? ?
    የጉጅሌ ቁራጭ፤
    አርና ደም መጣጭ።
    ለወያኔ ጽዕብ፣
    የሚስማማ ከዝንብ።
    የለም የተሻለ የሚሆን መጠሪያው፤
    ባንዳ እና ወያኔን ነው ይኼው ነው ማሰሪያው።
    አይነጋም መስሏችሁ፤
    ዛሬም ታራላችሁ።
    ዝምቦች የአራም ውላጅ፤
    የባንዳ ምልክት አገርን አዋራጅ።

  16. Tesfa
    | #16


    Be intellectually honest that U.S and U.K governments are not the same thing as the electorate in each country. Then, why are your sugar coding or glossing over this very fact.I bet you want to save your skin. That is if you must to keep your respected Job you must speak smooth about this pariah. The global elites are destroying our liberty every where,it matters little where it takes place here or there. You know clearly what I am talking about. You are so convinced about your PR project you still are lecturing us about what you say “U.S/U.K Hypocrisy.” Please don’t direct your energy in mere criticism.
    Examine your position. In my none of Us have clear strategy to un sit TPLF leaders. So if we want to contribute we must start to engage the public at large in the states we live. The general public in each nation is already battling the ideology to enslave humanity by these nuts. The best strategy might be to coordinate with the grass root movements in these nations. As the elites are comfortable being in bed with the third world dictators, the oppressed people also ought to coordinate their struggle against these parasites.

  17. USA Fears Blowback
    | #17

    @ GEORGE,
    you are right. USA, UK and Israel, and also the rest of the western countries like EU and the Vatican, all act together in Ethiopia the last 24 years and they all support TPLF. They obviously have sinister agendas like corrupting the country’s culture, dismantling the country, imposing and promoting sodomy, imposing tribalism that they also desperately tried to export to the rest of Africa using the African Union, etc. Those are evil forces of white supremacy and imperialism that need to be neutralized with their TPLF puppet.

  18. USA Fears Blowback
    | #18

    @ Alem,
    it is called USA Fears Blowback not “Blowback”. Is that to demonstrate your loyalty to USA ?
    The declining superpower is discredited and hated globally, also because of its actions in countries like Ethiopia, and before it falls the country might have decided to poison as many wells as possible all over the world. As they say, declining empires are dangerous.

    | #19


    የአዳንቆ መተረር ኖብል ሽልማት የለምና በመጠኑም ቢሆን ህልው ሁናቴን ማንፀባረቁና በህብረተሰብ መሃከልም ማንሸራሸሩ ይበጃል! ተኮላን የፈለገህን ልትለው ትችላለህ, ግን “ku klax klan” aka “Ku-Klux-Klan” አይደለም! እኛ ግን በዚህ አጋጣሚ የአንተን ሃላፊነት የማይሰማው …. ምንነትህን እየታዘብን ነው!

  20. Dawi
    | #20

    Alem said:

    [[.. As for Tecola, he is upset Hailemariam is the face of Tplf even though Hailemariam is powerless. He therefore recommends a military junta takeover to..because he is NOT a military man. That opens up space for his favorites [of "Tigrean origin"..]]

    To be fair, Prof. Tecola has given HD the benefit of the doubt as anybody else but, HD ended up becoming holier than the pope. HD has disappointed not just him but, so many folks by proving to be a true disciple of the “visionary man”.

    Be that as it may, Meles’s “developmental state” theory has to be what makes EPRDF the strongest and unites it beyond ethnic lines. If you take that away, they will end up MEDREK or KINIJIT who will start squabbling as soon as they win an election with their neo-liberal hodgepodge and creating an ultimate confusion to the nation in my opinion and chances are they will make our situation worst.

  21. Teodros Kiros
    | #21


    Dear Alem;

    I take great priide perhaps because of my feudal upbringing in my cordiality and civility unless I am pushed hard to stoop to vulgarity, which is not in my nature.

    Anyway, I have noticed that you think and write well but you spoil it by calling us names. According to you, I am ” a weak crow”, whatever that means, Tecola is a” venom.”

    May I cordially ask you to stop this name calling and simply engage in intelligent analysis and criticisms.

    This is my last attempt to reach you and ask you to behave civilly and cordially, the marks of intelligence and civilization. Please do not call me names anymore but engage me in argumentation free of barbarism.

    Your brother, Teodros Kiros, an Ethiopian of Tigrean origin.

  22. Alem
    | #22

    Dear Dr. Teodros,
    I said “the weaker crow” NOT “a weak crow.” There is a difference. Please read my comments very carefully before responding. The phrase I used is not “vulgarity” [which you claim is not in your nature]. Good for you.
    You always unnecessarily elevated Tecola as “master thinker” or “philosopher;” he is brilliant but not who you make him out to be. If you dispute it all I ask is for you to provide evidence. As an academe that should make you happy, not distraught. Unbeknownst to you, you’ve turned yourself into trumpeting someone else’s glory. That is what “the weaker crow” means. It is not name-calling or even vulgar, just descriptive of a behavior. You called Ghelaw “the leading educational theorist” in Ethiopia. That is a lie, one not expected of an intellectual like yourself. Ghelaw is an intelligent and capable person but NOT what you testified about him. Let me know if you have questions. Unfortunately, both Tecola and Ghelaw happen to be Ethiopians of Tigrayan origin. Nothing wrong with that. But what a coincidence! I did not expect you to be the one to inject ethnicity into the recent conference. Conference organizers to my knowledge invited any interested to take part. You and Tecola came out trashing it and participants. That is unprofessional, don’t you say. BTW, I don’t agree with the way the conference was organized. That is, by Eritean gov [aka Esat] to give Eritrea a foothold in Ethiopian/Horn affairs. To share the stage with the likes of Asmarom Legesse whose mission in life is the false promise of gaining a spanking new Oromiya Republic for ageing, visionless, and greedy OLF leaders [or create turmoil going in Ethiopia] at a time when Eritreans [including Pres. Isaias] talk about returning to their motherland! The irony of it all!

    Could I politely direct you to Tecola’s articles [any you can google] and tell me where he has not misrepresented someone else’s ideas, to put it mildly. I never knew you had a “feudal upbringing” whatever that means. If so, I don’t hold it against you. You are one fellow who has persisted to put yourself through a graduate school to a credible PhD in philosophy. I respect that. What irks me is when you or Tecola cite a document outside of academic standards to corroborate your side of a story. It is not vulgarity or name-calling to call you out on that! Take care.

  23. Anonymous
    | #23

    Dear Alem:

    You made my day.

    I can respond to such civilized and disciplined discourse. All your points are well taken and I will take them to heart. Now please let us refine the unfinished Ethiopian modernity. You are right. Ethiopian modernity did begin with Aste Teodros and others. I should have said, Revolutionary Ethiopian Modernity began with Meles and then he betrayed it by embracing Neo-Liberalism. I am now trying to salvage the project and theorize it on a new level.

    My vision is to return to Revolutionary Ethiopian modernity with A New Moral Economy on which I have written and which I hope you can read, so that we can refine this unfinished project on a totally new grounding, a new sense of Ethiopianity.

    Please google New Moral Economy so that you see my humble contribution.

  24. Cheru
    | #24

    Ancient #19

    I am not a fan of your disparaging, wax and gold remarks. Certainly not of your xenophobic remarks against Eritreans or implicit remarks written with Tigrigna language on a public forum where your likes only can attend to. That says a lot about your narrow character. I am further dismayed by your manner (typical of you and your likes)of jumping into the bandwagon of defending whom ever belongs to your tribe even if he is drenching with blood of innocent people. Tecola Hagos is worse that the self styles Ku klax klans who are now confined to the home land for us sloga. For the record Tecola hagos:
    – Labelled Minilik and Mengistu as possessing sub human genes as being descentas of slaves.
    - Labelled King Tewodros as a mad man who has no lineage to the throne.
    -Labelles Amahara settlers in the center of Ethiopia as “Mehal Sefaris” who are responsible for virtuall all of Ethiopias ills (LOL).
    Labelled most of the Ethiopians living on the peripheries as Bantus who should not belong to Ethiopia.
    -Declared that those who rule Ethiopia must possess the right DNA makeup which he equated it to being a Tigre.
    -and many many more. But this man’s immorality never ceases to amaze.

    What more do you want????

  25. jizijaiy
    | #25

    In order a military coup to occur, there must be a well defined, well structured military system and apparatus composed of military personnel from different segments of Ethiopians’ society . In Ethiopia, there is no such broad-based military system. All the generals are uneducated and are a collection of robbers and gang members under one group-leadership.

    Why would one of the generals or a group of generals, or a group of cornels, or majors from the same ethnic group who have been equally criminals both in monitory and murder and genocide, conduct a coup when all the crimes committed by one member of the group is a crime committed by another one in a group for which the fate one member in the group is the fate of the entire group?

    Military coup, at present situation, it is not feasible; what is realistic is to mass insurrection and eliminate the robbers and put in place a democratic government; in this case, military coup would not likely to happen to threatened the democratically elected government.

    | #26


    “Eritreans, Tigrigna” !! Ha..Ha…..!

    አማርኛ እንዳበጁሽ ትገላበጫለሽ እንዲሉት, it depends from which angle and perspective people look at things. And don’t forget that everything is a matter of Interpretation!

    ንስኻ ባዕልኻ መን ምኻንካን ኣብ ምንታይ ንኽትበፅሕ ብምሕሳብ ከምዝኾነን ከየብራህኻስ, ዋላኻ ተኮላ ደጋጊሙ ብዙሕ ግዜ ትግራዋይ, ሽዌ ወይድማ ወሎዬ ንምኻኑ ኣስሚዑ እንዳሃለወስ, ንስኻ ግና ስለምንታይ ኢኻ ንተኮላነቱ ወይድማ ንኻሊእነቱ ከይኮነስ, ነፂልካ ነታ ትራዋይነቱ ጥራሕ ክተጥቕዕ ምብጋስካ? ተጋሩ ኾኑ ኻልኦት ኢትዮጵያውያን ኣብዝዝለፍሉ እዋናት ድማ ናይ ግዴታ እዩ ቅልቅል ንኽንብል!

    ተኮላ ዋላኻ ከምቲ እትብሎ ዘሎኻ’ውን ኢሉ እንተኾነ ን’”Ku klax klans”ነት ኣየብቕዖን እዩ!

    ብርግፅ’ውን ከምቲ እትብሎ ዘሎኻ’ውን ኢሉ እንተድኣኾይኑ ድማ ብዘይ ሓደ ሓደ ኣብ ነጥቢ ዘይኣትዋ ነጠላ ሰረዛትን ናይ ኣብሃህላ ዜቤታትን ገዲፍካ ብዙሕ ጌጋታት’ውን ዘለዎ ኾኑ ኣይርኣየንን! ግን ድማ ምናልባት ዶኾን ምስቲ ሓደ ፈታሒ ሕልሚ ሓውና, ኣፈታትሓ ኣብሃህላታት ተኮላ ዶኾን ነቲ ጉዳያት ኣትሓሒዝካዮ ትኸውን?? ተኾላ ድማ ብዛዕባ ሃገሩ ኢትዮጵያ ዝመስሎ ሓሳባት ንደቂ ዓዱ ኢትዮጵያውያን ንኸቕርብ መሰል ኣለዎ! ብርግፅ ዝኾነ ግዱስ ወድሰብ መልሲ’ውን ክህቦ ይኽእል ኢዩ! መልሲ ውሃባይ ግና በቲ ንናይ ባዕሉ ሃገር ዘበላሸወ “ኣንደበቱ” ገይሩ ኣብ ጉዳይ ኢትዮጵያ ኣፃብዕቱ ከየጥልቕ ክንጥንቀቕ ስለ ዘሎናስ ንኣብሃህላኻ ብምንፃገይ ከይተቐየምካስ ኣብ ዝምልከተካ ዋኒናት ጥራሕ ኣተኩሮ ግበር!

    ድሕሪ ሕጂ ድማ ካባኻ መልሲ ከምዘይፅበ ከፍልጠካ እፈቱ! ጥራሕ ኣብ ዋኒናትካ ……….! እንኻን እቺን የዝንብ ጠንባራን እናውቃለን!!!!

    በበለጠ ስለ “Eritreans”,ህ እና “Tigrigna”ህ የሚቀጥለው እንደ መንደርደርያ ይሁንህ እና በበለጠ ደግሞ ጠቅላላውን በ’Google ጎላጉለህ አንብብ!
    “-Der Eritreer hat sich (so wie viele andere aus seiner Sippe) bis in meine Küche hinein psychiatriereif in meiner Sache geheuchelt, in dem er wie ein von Tollwut angefallene Hund von Haus zu Haus eilte. ስዲ ዕሱብ ወዲ ኣስካርያን.”

  27. Teodros Kiros
    | #27

    Dear Alem;

    I did not respond as ananymous. I simply do not know why this is happening consistently. This is by Teodros Kiros and I am posting it again.

    Dear Alem:
    You made my day.
    I can respond to such civilized and disciplined discourse. All your points are well taken and I will take them to heart. Now please let us refine the unfinished Ethiopian modernity. You are right. Ethiopian modernity did begin with Aste Teodros and others. I should have said, Revolutionary Ethiopian Modernity began with Meles and then he betrayed it by embracing Neo-Liberalism. I am now trying to salvage the project and theorize it on a new level.
    My vision is to return to Revolutionary Ethiopian modernity with A New Moral Economy on which I have written and which I hope you can read, so that we can refine this unfinished project on a totally new grounding, a new sense of Ethiopianity.

  28. Anonymous
    | #28

    Dear Teodros and all,

    The reason a post ends up as “Anonymous” is when we forget filling our name on the “Name” slot and hit the “submit comment” key. Many forums won’t allow a “nameless” comment to be sent; for some reason abugida allows that to happen.


  29. Dawi
    | #29

    Dear Teodros and all,

    The reason a post ends up as “Anonymous” is when we forget filling our name on the “Name” slot and hit the “submit comment” key.

    For some reason abugida allows that to happen but, I am sure the admn still knows who the individual is.

  30. Teodros Kiros
    | #30

    Dear Dawi;

    Thanks for the clarification.

  31. Sisiencha
    | #31

    Dawi, don’t you think, you deserve giving a little, if not a tone of respect to yourself? One thing that set the oppositions apart from the current TPLF THUGS is that the oppositions promote democracy, to say just the least; this democracy is not an advertisement to sell a brand o and neither it is a slogan posted on a billboard for a concert venue. it is what the people want to govern themselves through a representative democratic governance; therefore are there opposition to convey the voice of the people through leadership. You and Hailemariam Desalegn are the same when it comes to seeing the reality; both of you see things in a twilight zone, as opposed to what the opposition leaders and the people who want them to represent and lead them to the world of a democratic government in which both people and leadership go hand in hand for a common shared goals. Why can not you see this? Dawi, do you need to have an incision on your mind’s eye so that you will and can see the reality vividly; see and observe what the people see and observe and then become the follower of people’s elected government, you can feel achieving something important not only for yourself, for the people too. Measure your thoughts result against the facts on the ground, see the discrepancies, weigh them against with what people have at hand; do it more times until you see results. prove to yourself you and Hailemariam Desalegn are not the same in terms of thinking and doing things. That is it, Dawi.

  32. Dawi
    | #32

    Dear Sisiencha,

    I am fine with democratic advocates but, spending so much time focusing on the deficits of those who are doing something in real world, focusing on what they’re bad at instead of on what improvement can be made, we forget how powerful our overall country assets can be.

    As we do it in personal achievement, building on assets feels more doable, and ultimately better for country. We can all be working from strength, it will not be a zero sum game to anyone therefore, more likely to succeed.

    Acknowledging the transformational paradigm of EPRDF and recognizing what it is based on is what is fascinating to me; concentrating mainly on the weakness of “Woyane” disregarding everything else is counter productive in my view.

Comments are closed.