ETHIOPIA OPPOSITION SEEKING HELP FROM SHABIA: A MISTAKE WITH A RISK OF DISASTROUS OUTCOMES By a patriotic Ethiopian
By whatever other names they may be called, Woyanne (TPLF) and Shabia (EPLF) are now at the helm of power in Ethiopia and Eritrea, respectively, making life miserable for the majority of the citizens and some others around them. Both regimes have their origin from the same tribal stalk marinated with European colonial and derogatory Arab influences, with startling similarities in a number of aspects before and after holding power. The instinct-driven administrative “guess work“ they implement in the name of governance in their respective countries are basically the same as those they used to practice when they were tribal guerrilla fighters against Ethiopia. That means, as they were in their guerrilla years, they are still immersed in tribal mentality, crude, harsh and backward in every aspect of their attitudes and actions. After having been in power for about a quarter of a century, they have not demonstrated any sign of genuine change in these attributes. This has created a huge problem of compatibility between the leadership styles and the need of the people they claim to govern and the reality of the outside world. Although the two regimes seem to disagree with each other in some instances, as repeatedly observed previously, the above basic factors, together with personal and political commonalities, surely bind them together more tightly to look out for each other’s interest when the need arises.
After the fall of Ethiopia and Eritrea in the hands of TPLF and EPLF, the countries have been in wars with each other on several occasions. Due to these unnecessary wars, both countries have encountered significant human and material loses. Experts link the causes of the wars primarily to economic, cultural and/or simply “egoistic” reasons on the part of the leaderships. The issue of the border town of Badem, still in Ethiopia, has currently become a major excuse for finger pointing at each other and provocative ranting. Although the UN Boundary Commission has decided in favor of Eritrea regarding Badem, TPLF has not been willing to accept the decision for political expediency. This action of TPLF has turned Shabia’s Issays furious, forcing him to consider taking revenge against the TPLF regime. Coinciding with the interests of some Ethiopian opposition groups against TPLF, political parties like G7 have opted working with Shabia to fight TPLF, with the ultimate goal of removing it from power. However, many well-intentioned Ethiopians have questioned the merits of such a collaborative effort between the anti-Ethiopia organization, Shabia, and G7 and the likes. I am one of those Ethiopians harboring this subscription quite for some time. I believe that it is not only impossible to bring about positive changes in Ethiopia by working with Shabia, but the country will also be burdened with additional problems that will be harder to overcome.
The Shabia leadership believes that the exploitation of Ethiopia is key to the survival and development of Eritrea. Since Eritrea is a much smaller country, it is Shabia’s desire and policy that Ethiopia should remain weak in order to be malleable for manipulation and exploitation. To accomplish this objective, Shabia has been serving as a shelter and a source of material resources for different liberation fronts that are bent to destroy Ethiopia as we know it. These libration fronts include OLF and ONLF. In the face of this ongoing anti-Ethiopia effort, how come one expects to get genuine support from Shabia that can help the Ethiopian people in the long run, as G7 and its likes claim? One may wonder if this the intended goal of G7 and its ant-TPLF allies?
There are reports that Shabia is engaged in the day-to-day control of the activities of patriotic Ethiopian fighters stationed in Eritrea to fight the TPLF regime with arms. This action of Shabia is partly reflected by the lack of expected progress in the ati-TPLF fight and the disappearances of some key leaders of the fighters. In addition, previously, Shabia was involved in the dismantling of once the strongest Ethiopian opposition party, Kinejit, by creating a fake organization known as AFD.
Available evidence further indicates that high-positioned Eritreans working in Ethiopia (including military personnel) are in the service of Eritrea at the expense Ethiopia. This loyalty towards Eritrea is in contrast to the widely claimed antagonist attitude of the TPLF regime against the small nation. In fact, many believe that the seemingly hostile attitude of TPLF towards Eritrea is a made-up lie created by the very TPLF only for public consumption, primarily by nationalist Tigre.
If Shabia has a concern about the well-being of Ethiopia and its people, it should also be expected to be concerned, at least equally, about its own people, the Eritreans. It has been well witnessed by the entire world that Shabia is one of the most repressive and brutal regimes in the world, and Eritreans, under shabia, are among the most suffering people. The immense suffering they undergo has even become a burden to other well-off nations particularly across the Mediterranean and Red seas. How do we expect this cruel organization called Shabia to be helpful to Ethiopians? Clearly, it is wrong and also immoral to collaborate with such a terrorist organization for any purpose. With this relationship, there is a possibility of “guilty by association” with a likelihood of unpleasant consequences sometime from somewhere.
With all the dishonesty, crimes and immorality associated with the two evils, Shabia and TPLF, what can be expected to happen next regarding Ethiopians who are working with Shabia against the TPLF regime? A likely long-term scenario could be that after Shabia becomes comfortable controlling as many Ethiopians as possible who oppose the TPLF, a fake negotiation will be introduced between the two regimes to exchange anti-TPLF Ethiopians from Eritrea for something that Shabia wants from the TPLF. In this regard, one possibility can be the abdication of Badem to Shabia by the TPLF. In this way, all Ethiopians in Eritrea opposing TPLF will be transferred to Ethiopia and fall in the hands of TPLF. It is not rocket science to predict what will then happen to these patriotic Ethiopians and to the struggle. On the other hand, it will be a win-win situation for the two criminal organizations, once again, benefiting big time from our perennial weaknesses.
What can possibly be done to prevent this gloomy situation going on currently? Obviously, the first action is to stop collaborating with the confirmed historical enemy of Ethiopia, Shabia, as it has not made a change of mind in its destructive policy against Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people, irrespective of political changes and power shift. After becoming free from shabia, the Ethiopian opposition should strive to create a stronger bond with other like-minded Ethiopians to work together against their common enemy, the TPLF, for the well being of the nation and its people, irrespective of ethnicity/languages, religion and geographic locations. To move forward towards this goal, efforts should include activities related to foreign diplomacy and, of course, to the struggle of the people inside Ethiopia. As it can be seen every moment, currently, the world is clearly divided by partisan politics. It is important to identify who the major players are and what roles they play in shaping the world we live in. Most of human history shows that powerful nations, directly or indirectly, can determine the fate of less powerful or poor nations. This reality should be recognized and the necessary political adjustments should be made to explore the possibility of taking advantage of. Conscious and effective strategy should be designed to win reliable new friends and sources of supports from around the world. Ultimately, this external diplomatic effort should be coordinated with the internal struggle to achieve the desired goal of removing the evil regime and forming a democratic nation. There are many examples of success stories in many places based on these approaches of struggle agonist tyranny and exploitation. What is needed in Ethiopia’s case is the willingness and determination to do it. There is no need to go far away in search of a very risky adventure in a land ruled by crooks.
Long live Ethiopia, the birthplace of the human species on planet earth.